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The shadow of death: an empirical analysis of the pre-exit performance of young German firms

  • Almus, Matthias
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    This paper makes an empirical contribution to confirm the stylized fact that the performance of firms deteoriates in the years before exit. For this reason we evaluate whether market exits differ significantly in their employment development in the years before market drop-out compared to surviving firms that have been selected using a non-parametric matching approach. The matching approach allows to find a surviving firm for every market exit that does not differ in important characteristics measured at start-up. The comparison of the employment growth rates among the thus formed groups reveals that the matched surviving firms experience higher growth rates compared to their exiting counterparts up to three years before market exit. Moreover, we find support for the phenomenon called \shadow of death" sneaking around the corner. A considerable number of firms exiting from 1995 until 1998 has experienced continuing employment losses or at least an employment stagnation over several years before market exit.

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    File URL: http://econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/24391/1/dp0044.pdf
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    Paper provided by ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research in its series ZEW Discussion Papers with number 00-44.

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    Date of creation: 2000
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:5328
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    1. Schmalensee, Richard, 1989. "Inter-industry studies of structure and performance," Handbook of Industrial Organization, in: R. Schmalensee & R. Willig (ed.), Handbook of Industrial Organization, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 16, pages 951-1009 Elsevier.
    2. Raghuram G. Rajan & Luigi Zingales, 1998. "Power In A Theory Of The Firm," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(2), pages 387-432, May.
    3. Susanne Prantl, 2000. "Post-Entry Selection Among Newly Founded Firms in East and West Germany after Unification: A Competing Risk Model with Forced Bankruptcy Liquidations and Voluntary Liquidations," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1602, Econometric Society.
    4. Adonis Yatchew, 1998. "Nonparametric Regression Techniques in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(2), pages 669-721, June.
    5. Geroski, P. A., 1995. "What do we know about entry?," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 421-440, December.
    6. George S Olley & Ariel Pakes, 1992. "The Dynamics Of Productivity In The Telecommunications Equipment Industry," Working Papers 92-2, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    7. Lechner, Michael & Pfeiffer, Friedhelm & Spengler, Hannes & Almus, Matthias, 2000. "The impact of non-profit temping agencies on individual labour market success in the West German state of Rhineland-Palatinate," ZEW Discussion Papers 00-02, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    8. Ericson, Richard & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Markov-Perfect Industry Dynamics: A Framework for Empirical Work," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(1), pages 53-82, January.
    9. Almus, Matthias & Engel, Dirk & Prantl, Susanne, 2000. "The Mannheim Foundation Panels of the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW)," ZEW Dokumentationen 00-02, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
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