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Deflation and Relative Prices: Evidence from Japan and Hong Kong

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  • Gerlach, Stefan
  • Kugler, Peter

Abstract

We test the menu cost model of Ball and Mankiw (1994, 1995) on data from the inflation and deflation periods in Japan and Hong Kong. We calculate the moments of the distribution of price changes using a random split procedure to overcome the bias noted by Cecchetti and Bryan (1999). The key implication of the model, that the parameter on skewness is positive during both inflation and deflation, is strongly supported. The data are less clear on, but does not reject, the hypothesis that the parameter on the standard deviation changes sign between inflation and deflation periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerlach, Stefan & Kugler, Peter, 2011. "Deflation and Relative Prices: Evidence from Japan and Hong Kong," VfS Annual Conference 2011 (Frankfurt, Main): The Order of the World Economy - Lessons from the Crisis 48709, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc11:48709
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Logue, Dennis E & Willett, Thomas D, 1976. "A Note on the Relation between the Rate and Variability of Inflation," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 43(17), pages 151-158, May.
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    4. Frederick C. Mills, 1927. "The Behavior of Prices," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number mill27-1, March.
    5. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-334, June.
    6. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1995. "Relative-Price Changes as Aggregate Supply Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(1), pages 161-193.
    7. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1999. "Inflation And The Distribution Of Price Changes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(2), pages 188-196, May.
    8. Kim, Tae-Hwan & White, Halbert, 2004. "On more robust estimation of skewness and kurtosis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 56-73, March.
    9. Frederick C. Mills, 1927. "Appendix to "The Behavior of Prices"," NBER Chapters, in: The Behavior of Prices, pages 441-586, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Stanley Fischer, 1981. "Relative Shocks, Relative Price Variability, and Inflation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(2), pages 381-442.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Roman Inderst & Manuel Klein, 2007. "Innovation, endogenous overinvestment, and incentive pay," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 38(4), pages 881-904, December.
    2. Michael Funke & Sebastian Weber & Jörg Döpke & Sean Holly, 2008. "The Cross-Section of Output and Inflation in a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model with Sticky Prices," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20809, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
    3. Inderst, Roman, 2010. "Misselling (financial) products: The limits for internal compliance," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 35-37, January.
    4. Roman Inderst, 2008. "'Irresponsible Lending' With A Better Informed Lender," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(532), pages 1499-1519, October.
    5. Roman Inderst & Holger M. Mueller & Felix Münnich, 2006. "Financing a Portfolio of Projects," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(4), pages 1289-1325.
    6. Juliane Scharff & Sven Schreiber, 2012. "Evidence on the effects of inflation on price dispersion under indexation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 291-311, August.
    7. Roman Inderst & Holger M. Mueller, 2010. "CEO Replacement Under Private Information," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(8), pages 2935-2969, August.
    8. Ryan Niladri Banerjee & Aaron Mehrotra, 2018. "Deflation expectations," BIS Working Papers 699, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Inderst, Roman & Mueller, Holger M., 2009. "Early-stage financing and firm growth in new industries," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 276-291, August.
    10. Inderst, Roman & Mueller, Holger M., 2008. "Bank capital structure and credit decisions," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 295-314, July.
    11. James Yetman, 2009. "Hong Kong Consumer Prices are Flexible," Working Papers 052009, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    12. Inderst, Roman, 2009. "Loan origination under soft- and hard-information lending," IMFS Working Paper Series 27, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    13. Hayo, Bernd & Ono, Hiroyuki, 2015. "Explaining inflation in the period of quantitative easing in Japan: Relative-price changes, aggregate demand, and monetary policy," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 72-85.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation; deflation; menu costs; Hong Kong; Japan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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