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Deflation and Relative Prices: Evidence from Japan and Hong Kong

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  • Gerlach, Stefan
  • Kugler, Peter

    () (University of Basel)

Abstract

We test the menu cost model of Ball and Mankiw (1994, 1995), which implies NEWLINE that the impact of price dispersion on inflation should differ between inflation and NEWLINE deflation episodes, using data for Japan and Hong Kong. We use a random crosssection NEWLINE sample split when calculating the moments of the distribution of price NEWLINE changes to mitigate the small-cross-section-sample bias noted by Cecchetti and NEWLINE Bryan (1999). The parameter on the third moment is positive and significant in NEWLINE both countries during both the inflation and deflation periods, and the parameter NEWLINE on the second moment changes sign in the deflation period, as the theory predicts.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerlach, Stefan & Kugler, Peter, 2007. "Deflation and Relative Prices: Evidence from Japan and Hong Kong," Working papers 2007/08, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
  • Handle: RePEc:bsl:wpaper:2007/08
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stanley Fischer, 1981. "Relative Shocks, Relative Price Variability, and Inflation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(2), pages 381-442.
    2. Frederick C. Mills, 1927. "Introduction to "The Behavior of Prices"," NBER Chapters,in: The Behavior of Prices, pages 31-36 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-334, June.
    4. Logue, Dennis E & Willett, Thomas D, 1976. "A Note on the Relation between the Rate and Variability of Inflation," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 43(17), pages 151-158, May.
    5. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1995. "Relative-Price Changes as Aggregate Supply Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(1), pages 161-193.
    6. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1999. "Inflation And The Distribution Of Price Changes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(2), pages 188-196, May.
    7. Kim, Tae-Hwan & White, Halbert, 2004. "On more robust estimation of skewness and kurtosis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 56-73, March.
    8. Vining, Daniel R, Jr & Elwertowski, Thomas C, 1976. "The Relationship between Relative Prices and the General Price Level," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(4), pages 699-708, September.
    9. Frederick C. Mills, 1927. "The Behavior of Prices," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number mill27-1, December.
    10. Frederick C. Mills, 1927. "Appendix to "The Behavior of Prices"," NBER Chapters,in: The Behavior of Prices, pages 441-586 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hayo, Bernd & Ono, Hiroyuki, 2015. "Explaining inflation in the period of quantitative easing in Japan: Relative-price changes, aggregate demand, and monetary policy," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 72-85.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation; deflation; menu costs; Hong Kong; Japan;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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