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Dependence of stock returns in bull and bear markets

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  • Dobrić, Jadran
  • Frahm, Gabriel
  • Schmid, Friedrich

Abstract

Pearson's correlation coefficient is typically used for measuring the dependence structure of stock returns. Nevertheless, it has many shortcomings often documented in the literature. We suggest to use a conditional version of Spearman's rho as an alternative dependence measure. Our approach is purely nonparametric and we avoid any kind of model misspecification. We derive hypothesis tests for the conditional Spearman's rho in bull andbearmarkets and verify the tests by Monte Carlo simulation.Further, we study the daily returns of stocks contained in the German stock index DAX 30. We find some significant differences in dependence of stock returns in bull and bear markets. On the other hand the differences are not so strong as one might expect.

Suggested Citation

  • Dobrić, Jadran & Frahm, Gabriel & Schmid, Friedrich, 2007. "Dependence of stock returns in bull and bear markets," Discussion Papers in Econometrics and Statistics 9/07, University of Cologne, Institute of Econometrics and Statistics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ucdpse:907
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Beatriz Vaz de Melo Mendes, 2005. "Asymmetric extreme interdependence in emerging equity markets," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 21(6), pages 483-498, November.
    6. Ines Fortin & Christoph Kuzmics, 2002. "Tail‐dependence in stock‐return pairs," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(2), pages 89-107, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fabrizio Durante & Roberta Pappadà & Nicola Torelli, 2014. "Clustering of financial time series in risky scenarios," Advances in Data Analysis and Classification, Springer;German Classification Society - Gesellschaft für Klassifikation (GfKl);Japanese Classification Society (JCS);Classification and Data Analysis Group of the Italian Statistical Society (CLADAG);International Federation of Classification Societies (IFCS), vol. 8(4), pages 359-376, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    bear market; bootstrapping; bull market; conditional Spearman's rho; copulas; Monte Carlo simulation; stock returns;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General

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