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Die EWWU als Club: Positive und normative Implikationen für den Beitritt mittel- und osteuropäischer Reformstaaten ; Beitrag für den Projektbericht: Währungspolitische Optionen für die mittel- und osteuropäischen Beitrittskandidaten zur EU

  • Sell, Friedrich L.
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    Der vorliegende Beitrag untersucht die Frage nach der Wahl eines optimalen Wechselkursregimes für ausgewählte Transformationsländer (Tschechische Republik, Ungarn, Estland, Slowenien und Polen), die an einer baldigen Aufnahme in die EWWU interessiert sind. Der gewählte Analyseansatz greift auf positive und normative Hinweise der Club Theorie zurück. Es wird zunächst gezeigt, wie sich die optimale Größe (Anzahl der Mitglieder) und die optimale Bereitstellung des Clubgutes (Inflationsrate) einer Währungsunion simultan bestimmen lassen. Gleichfalls wird die Anreizstruktur für bisherige Mitglieder, neue aufzunehmen und für Aufnahmekandidaten, der Währungsunion beizutreten, dargestellt. Vor diesem Hintergrund werden Kriterien (Kosten und Nutzen des Beitritts) für eine bestmögliche Strategie der Wechselkurspolitik der Beitrittskandidaten zur Vorbereitung auf den EURO entwickelt. Der am Ende erarbeitete Vorschlag läuft darauf hinaus, das Konzept von der Schlange im Tunnel neu zu beleben, wobei die Reformstaaten enge Bandbreiten ihrer Wechselkurse untereinander und vergleichsweise weite gegenüber dem EURO wählen sollten.

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    Paper provided by Universität der Bundeswehr München, Economic Research Group in its series Working Papers in Economics with number 1999,4.

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    Date of creation: 1999
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:ubwwpe:19994
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    1. Sorenson, John R. & Tschirhart, John T. & Whinston, Andrew B., 1978. "Private good clubs and the core," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 77-95, August.
    2. Roland Vaubel, 1976. "Real exchange-rate changes in the European community: The empirical evidence and its implications for European currency unification," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 112(3), pages 429-470, September.
    3. Alesina, Alberto, 1987. "Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-party System as a Repeated Game," Scholarly Articles 4552531, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    4. Chappell, Henry W, Jr & Keech, William R, 1986. "Party Differences in Macroeconomic Policies and Outcomes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(2), pages 71-74, May.
    5. Sieg, Gernot, 1997. "A model of partisan central banks and opportunistic political business cycles," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 503-516, September.
    6. Vaubel, Roland, 1999. "The Future of the Euro : A Public Choice Perspective," Discussion Papers 570, Institut fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre und Statistik, Abteilung fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre.
    7. Sinn, Hans-Werner & Feist, Holger, 1997. "Eurowinners and Eurolosers: The distribution of seigniorage wealth in EMU1," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 665-689, December.
    8. Friedrich L. Sell, 1996. "On the theoretical determination of optimal currency areas in the framework of club theory," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 126-143, Autumn.
    9. Vaubel, Roland, 1997. "The bureaucratic and partisan behavior of independent central banks: German and international evidence," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 201-224, May.
    10. Goodhart, Charles A. E., 1998. "The two concepts of money: implications for the analysis of optimal currency areas," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 407-432, August.
    11. Paul Grauwe, 1975. "Conditions for monetary integration — A geometric interpretation," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 111(4), pages 634-646, December.
    12. George S. Tavlas, 1993. "The ‘New’ Theory of Optimum Currency Areas," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(6), pages 663-685, November.
    13. Sandler, Todd & Tschirhart, John T, 1980. "The Economic Theory of Clubs: An Evaluative Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 1481-1521, December.
    14. Lukas Menkhoff & Friedrich Sell, 1991. "The advantages of a small European Monetary Union," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 64-67, March.
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