Sovereign risk in a structural approach: Evaluating sovereign ability-to-pay and probability of default
We quantify the probability that a sovereign defaults on repayment obligations in foreign currency. Adopting the structural approach as first introduced by Merton, we consider the sovereigns ability-to-pay, characterised by the sum of discounted future payment surpluses, as the underlying process. Its implicit volatility is inferred from market spreads. We demonstrate for the case of Latin America and Russia that our approach indicates default events well in advance of agencies and markets.
|Date of creation:||2003|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: ++49 351 463 2196
Fax: ++49 351 463 7739
Web page: http://www.tu-dresden.de/wiwi/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996.
"Determinants and impacts of sovereign credit ratings,"
9608, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impact of sovereign credit ratings," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Oct, pages 37-53.
- Kenneth Rogoff, 1999.
"International Institutions for Reducing Global Financial Instability,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 21-42, Fall.
- Kenneth Rogoff, 1999. "International Institutions for Reducing Global Financial Instability," NBER Working Papers 7265, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stanley Fischer, 1999. "On the Need for an International Lender of Last Resort," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 85-104, Fall.
- Claessens, Stijn & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1993. "Secondary Market Prices and Mexico's Brady Deal," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(4), pages 967-82, November.
- Merton, Robert C., 1973.
"On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates,"
684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May.
- Geske, Robert, 1977. "The Valuation of Corporate Liabilities as Compound Options," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 541-552, November.
- Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:tuddps:0703. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.