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Analyse der Schuldentragfähigkeit Griechenlands

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  • Scheuering, Uwe

Abstract

Die Tragfähigkeit der öffentlichen Schulden Griechenlands steht auf der Kippe. Daher fordert unter anderem der IWF einen Schuldenschnitt für öffentliche Gläubiger („Official Sector Involvement, OSI“). Der hohe Schuldenstand bewirkt eine besondere Schuldendynamik in Abhängigkeit des Zins-Wachstums-Quotienten, der bei ungünstiger Entwicklung nur durch sehr hohe Primärüberschüsse aufgefangen werden kann. Dank langer Laufzeiten und niedriger Zinsen der Hilfskredite wird diese Dynamik allerdings erst nach 2030 wirksam, wenn ein hoher Anteil der Schulden wieder über private Kreditmärkte refinanziert wird. Daher ist die Notwendigkeit eines Schuldenschnitts zum heutigen Zeitpunkt unklar.

Suggested Citation

  • Scheuering, Uwe, 2015. "Analyse der Schuldentragfähigkeit Griechenlands," Working Papers 04/2015, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:svrwwp:042015
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    1. Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1990. "Suggestions for a New Set of Fiscal Indicators," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 79, OECD Publishing.
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    1. Bofinger, Peter & Schnabel, Isabel & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Wieland, Volker, 2015. "Zukunftsfähigkeit in den Mittelpunkt. Jahresgutachten 2015/16 [Focus on Future Viability. Annual Report 2015/16]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201516.

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