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Nonlinear modeling of target leverage with latent determinant variables: New evidence on the trade-off theory

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  • Sabiwalsky, Ralf

Abstract

The trade-off theory on capital structure is tested by modelling the capital structure target as the solution to a maximization problem. This solution maps asset volatility and loss given default to optimal leverage. By applying nonlinear structural equation modelling, these unobservable variables are estimated based on observable indicator variables, and simultaneously, the speed of adjustment towards this leverage target is estimated. Linear specifications of the leverage target suffer from overlap between the predictions of various theories on capital structure about the sign and significance of determinants. In contrast, the framework applied here allows for a direct test: results confirm the trade-off theory for small and medium-sized firms, but not for large firms.

Suggested Citation

  • Sabiwalsky, Ralf, 2008. "Nonlinear modeling of target leverage with latent determinant variables: New evidence on the trade-off theory," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2008-062, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2008-062
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis

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