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Estimation of integrated volatility in continuous time financial models with applications to goodness-of-fit testing

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  • Vetter, Mathias
  • Podolskij, Mark
  • Dette, Holger

Abstract

Properties of a specification test for the parametric form of the variance function in diffusion processes dXt = b (t,Xt) dt + sigma (t,Xt) dWt are discussed. The test is based on the estimation of certain integrals of the volatility function. If the volatility function does not depend on the variable x it is known that the corresponding statistics have an asymptotic normal distribution. However, most models of mathematical finance use a volatility function which depends on the state x. In this paper we prove that in the general case, where sigma depends also on x the estimates of integrals of the volatility converge stably in law to random variables with a non-standard limit distribution. The limit distribution depends on the diffusion process Xt itself and we use this result to develop a bootstrap test for the parametric form of the volatility function, which is consistent in the general diffusion model.

Suggested Citation

  • Vetter, Mathias & Podolskij, Mark & Dette, Holger, 2004. "Estimation of integrated volatility in continuous time financial models with applications to goodness-of-fit testing," Technical Reports 2004,32, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb475:200432
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kleinow, Torsten, 2002. "Testing the diffusion coefficient," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2002,38, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    2. Ole Barndorff-Nielsen & Svend Erik Graversen & Jean Jacod & Mark Podolskij & Neil Shephard, 2004. "A Central Limit Theorem for Realised Power and Bipower Variations of Continuous Semimartingales," Economics Papers 2004-W29, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    3. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Constantinides, George M, 1992. "A Theory of the Nominal Term Structure of Interest Rates," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(4), pages 531-552.
    5. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
    6. Gerety, Mason S & Mulherin, J Harold, 1994. "Price Formation on Stock Exchanges: The Evolution of Trading within the Day," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(3), pages 609-629.
    7. Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 627-627, November.
    8. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Behl, Peter & Dette, Holger & Frondel, Manuel & Tauchmann, Harald, 2011. "Choice is Suffering: A Focused Information Criterion for Model Selection Activation Program for Disadvantaged Youths," Ruhr Economic Papers 250, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    2. Almut Veraart, 2011. "How precise is the finite sample approximation of the asymptotic distribution of realised variation measures in the presence of jumps?," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 95(3), pages 253-291, September.
    3. Mark Podolskij & Katrin Wasmuth, 2013. "Goodness-of-fit testing for fractional diffusions," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 147-159, July.
    4. Peter Behl & Holger Dette & Manuel Frondel & Harald Tauchmann, 2011. "Being Focused: When the Purpose of Inference Matters for Model Selection," Ruhr Economic Papers 0264, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    5. Mark Podolskij & Mathias Vetter, 2010. "Understanding limit theorems for semimartingales: a short survey," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 64(s1), pages 329-351.
    6. Behl, Peter & Dette, Holger & Frondel, Manuel & Tauchmann, Harald, 2012. "Choice is suffering: A Focused Information Criterion for model selection," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 817-822.
    7. Christensen, K. & Podolskij, M. & Thamrongrat, N. & Veliyev, B., 2017. "Inference from high-frequency data: A subsampling approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 197(2), pages 245-272.
    8. Mark Podolskij & Katrin Wasmuth, 2012. "Goodness-of-fit testing for fractional diffusions," CREATES Research Papers 2012-12, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    9. Manuel Frondel & Peter Behl & Holger Dette & Harald Tauchmann, 2011. "Choice is Suffering: A Focused Information Criterion for Model Selection Activation Program for Disadvantaged Youths," Ruhr Economic Papers 0250, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    10. Mark Podolskij & Daniel Ziggel, 2007. "A Range-Based Test for the Parametric Form of the Volatility in Diffusion Models," CREATES Research Papers 2007-26, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    11. Masuda, Hiroki, 2013. "Asymptotics for functionals of self-normalized residuals of discretely observed stochastic processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 123(7), pages 2752-2778.
    12. repec:zbw:rwirep:0264 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Behl, Peter & Dette, Holger & Frondel, Manuel & Tauchmann, Harald, 2013. "Energy substitution: When model selection depends on the focus," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 233-238.
    14. Mark Podolskij & Mathieu Rosenbaum, 2012. "Testing the local volatility assumption: a statistical approach," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 31-48, February.
    15. Kinnebrock, Silja & Podolskij, Mark, 2008. "A note on the central limit theorem for bipower variation of general functions," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 118(6), pages 1056-1070, June.
    16. Behl, Peter & Dette, Holger & Frondel, Manuel & Tauchmann, Harald, 2011. "Being Focused: When the Purpose of Inference Matters for Model Selection," Ruhr Economic Papers 264, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    17. Lin, Liang-Ching & Lee, Sangyeol & Guo, Meihui, 2013. "Goodness-of-fit test for stochastic volatility models," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 473-498.
    18. repec:zbw:rwirep:0250 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Adam D. Bull, 2015. "Semimartingale detection and goodness-of-fit tests," Papers 1506.00088, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2016.

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