A state space model for Berlin house prices
How risky are investments in residential real estate? To answer this question, information is needed about the behavior of house prices. The hedonic methodology has become a standard approach for modelling the prices of heterogeneous assets. Although intuitively appealing, it is often criticized that this approach has no sound theoretical background. We have developed a model that partly circumvents this criticism. Based on an approximation for the present value, our model delivers a state space form for the determination of house prices. Thus, we can incorporate in an economically meaningful way other economic variables like the inflation rate, mortgage rates and returns of other assets. Under some restrictive conditions, our model reduces to the standard hedonic approach. We use the EM algorithm with a final scoring step to estimate our model with monthly data of single-family house sales from the four South-West districts of Berlin for the years 1982:7 to 1999:12.
|Date of creation:||2001|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Spandauer Str. 1,10178 Berlin|
Web page: http://www.wiwi.hu-berlin.de/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Engle, Robert F. & Lilien, David M. & Watson, Mark, 1985. "A dymimic model of housing price determination," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 307-326, June.
- Schwann, Gregory M, 1998. "A Real Estate Price Index for Thin Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 269-87, May.
- R. Carter Hill & J. R. Knight & C. F. Sirmans, 1997. "Estimating Capital Asset Price Indexes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 226-233, May.
- Dombrow, Jonathan & Knight, J R & Sirmans, C F, 1997. "Aggregation Bias in Repeat-Sales Indices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 14(1-2), pages 75-88, Jan.-Marc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb373:200158. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.