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Ein Frühindikator der Entwicklung im Produzierenden Gewerbe Ostdeutschlands

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  • Weyerstraß, Klaus

Abstract

Die Einschätzung der künftigen ökonomischen Entwicklung spielt für die Entscheidungen der Wirtschaftssubjekte sowie der wirtschaftspolitischen Entscheidungsträger eine wichtige Rolle. Im Falle Ostdeutschlands ist der Bedarf an einem Frühindikator besonders groß, da zur Zeit keine unterjährige Volkswirtschaftliche Gesamtrechnung veröffentlicht wird. Zudem wird das Konjunkturphänomen in Ostdeutschland durch Sonderentwicklungen überlagert. In diesem Diskussionspapier wird ein Frühindikator für die künftige Entwicklung im produzierenden Gewerbe Ostdeutschlands dargestellt. Dieser wird aus amtlichen Daten (Auftragseingänge, Zinsstruktur) sowie IWH-Umfragen gebildet.

Suggested Citation

  • Weyerstraß, Klaus, 2001. "Ein Frühindikator der Entwicklung im Produzierenden Gewerbe Ostdeutschlands," IWH Discussion Papers 144/2001, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:iwh-144
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch & Brigitte Loose & Udo Ludwig, 2001. "Trotz weltweiter Konjunkturschwäche verstärkt sich das Wachstum der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Produktion in Ostdeutschland etwas," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research, vol. 7(7-8), pages 164-180.
    2. John Conlisk, 1996. "Why Bounded Rationality?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 669-700, June.
    3. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, August.
    4. Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich & Loose, Brigitte & Ludwig, Udo, 2001. "Trotz weltweiter Konjunkturschwäche verstärkt sich das Wachstum der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Produktion in Ostdeutschland etwas," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 7(7-8), pages 164-180.
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