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Exchange rate policy in a dollarized economy: A CGE analysis for Bolivia

Author

Listed:
  • Schweickert, Rainer
  • Thiele, Rainer
  • Wiebelt, Manfred

Abstract

In this paper, a real-financial CGE model is employed for Bolivia to simulate the macroeconomic and distributional effects of exchange rate policy in a highly dollarized economy. Overall, dollarization appears to matter more through real than through financial-sector effects. The main macroeconomic result of the simulations is that the potential of nominal devaluation to smooth the adjustment path after a negative shock primarily depends on the absence of wage indexation. Only if nominal wages are constant in the short run, devaluation reduces unemployment and cushions the reduction of real GDP induced by the shock. Financial de-dollarization tends to be contractionary in Bolivia but different degrees of financial dollarization hardly change the real sector effects. As concerns distributional effects, nominal devaluation in no circumstance reduces the poverty effect of the external shock. Even the significant short-run macroeconomic expansion that occurs without wage indexation does not translate into significant poverty alleviation, which is due to the fact that the real value of transfers received by households decreases in this case.

Suggested Citation

  • Schweickert, Rainer & Thiele, Rainer & Wiebelt, Manfred, 2005. "Exchange rate policy in a dollarized economy: A CGE analysis for Bolivia," Kiel Working Papers 1255, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:1255
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    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/3669/1/kap1255.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
    2. Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico & Reggio, Iliana, 2010. "On the endogeneity of exchange rate regimes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 659-677, July.
    3. Paul Krugman, 1999. "Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(4), pages 459-472, November.
    4. Rainer Thiele & Daniel Piazolo, 2003. "A Social Accounting Matrix for Bolivia Featuring Formal and Informal Activities," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 40(120), pages 285-318.
    5. Lay, Jann & Thiele, Rainer & Wiebelt, Manfred, 2004. "Pro-poor growth in Bolivia: accounting for external shocks and policy reforms," Kiel Working Papers 1231, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Poverty; Computable General Equilibrium Model; Bolivia; Dollarization;

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • D3 - Microeconomics - - Distribution

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