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Deutsche Wirtschaft im Sommer 2021 - Mehr Druck auf den Preisventilen
[German Economy Summer 2021 - Pronounced price pressures]

Author

Listed:
  • Ademmer, Martin
  • Beckmann, Joscha
  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens
  • Fiedler, Salomon
  • Groll, Dominik
  • Jannsen, Nils
  • Kooths, Stefan
  • Meuchelböck, Saskia

Abstract

Die Konjunktur in Deutschland nimmt wieder Fahrt auf. Nachdem das Wiederaufflammen der Corona-Pandemie die wirtschaftliche Erholung im Winterhalbjahr ins Stocken gebracht hatte, wird die gesamtwirtschaftliche Produktion im weiteren Verlauf des Jahres in hohem Tempo ausgeweitet werden und ihr Vorkrisenniveau wieder überschreiten. Mit dem Wegfall der pandemiebedingten Restriktionen wird die Aktivität vor allem in jenen Bereichen rasch wieder zunehmen, die zuvor besonders belastet wurden. So dürften vor allem der Handel und kontaktintensive Dienstleistungen von dem Rückprall bei den Konsumausgaben der privaten Haushalte profitieren. Vorerst verzögern wird sich die Erholung jedoch beim Verarbeitenden Gewerbe. Die weltweit kräftige Erholung hat vielschichtige Lieferengpässe mit sich gebracht, die die Produktion vieler Unternehmen spürbar behindern. Trotz der sehr guten Auftragslage wird die Produktion im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe deshalb wohl erst in der zweiten Jahreshälfte wieder nach und nach auf ihren Erholungskurs einschwenken, sofern die Lieferengpässe dann allmählich nachlassen. Mit den Lieferengpässen hat auch der Preisdruck zugenommen, zumal die konjunkturelle Dynamik weltweit hoch ist. So waren die Preise für Rohstoffe, Vorleistungsgüter und Transportleistungen zuletzt auf breiter Front aufwärtsgerichtet. Alles in allem dürfte das Bruttoinlandsprodukt in diesem Jahr um 3,9 Prozent zulegen und im Jahr 2022 um 4,8 Prozent. Die Verbraucherpreise werden in diesem Jahr, zumal auch noch die Mehrwertsteuererhöhung und das Klimapaket preistreibend wirken, deutlich beschleunigt um voraussichtlich 2,6 Prozent steigen. Im kommenden Jahr wird die Inflation wohl bei rund 2 Prozent liegen.

Suggested Citation

  • Ademmer, Martin & Beckmann, Joscha & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Meuchelböck, Saskia, 2021. "Deutsche Wirtschaft im Sommer 2021 - Mehr Druck auf den Preisventilen [German Economy Summer 2021 - Pronounced price pressures]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 80, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkkb:80
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jannsen, Nils, 2021. "Zum Einfluss der Corona Pandemie auf den privaten Verbrauch," Kiel Insight 2021.01, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    3. Jannsen, Nils, 2015. "Typische Erholungsphasen der Unternehmensinvestitionen im Anschluss an normale Rezessionen und Bankenkrisen," Kiel Insight 2015.17, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    5. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hauber, Philipp & Kooths, Stefan & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2021. "Weltwirtschaft im Sommer 2021 - Auf dem Weg in den Post-Corona-Boom [World Economy Summer 2021 - Post-Corona-boom underway]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 79, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    6. Groll, Dominik, 2020. "Zum Beitrag der Kurzarbeit zur Arbeitszeit- und Lohndynamik im Zuge der Corona-Krise," Kiel Insight 2020.20, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    7. Martin Ademmer & Nils Jannsen, 2018. "Post-crisis business investment in the euro area and the role of monetary policy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(34-35), pages 3787-3797, July.
    8. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, 2022. "Berlin sieht es locker — Brüssel (noch) nicht [Berlin Takes It Easy — Brussels (Still) Does Not]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(1), pages 19-22, January.

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    Keywords

    Corona-Krise; COVID19; Konjunktur Deutschland; Fiskalpolitik & Haushalt; Arbeitsmarkt;
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