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Ein Unterstützungszoll für die Ukraine: Wie Europa die Ukraine unterstützen und Russland ökonomisch schwächen kann

Author

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  • Hinz, Julian
  • Schularick, Moritz

Abstract

Ein "'Ukraine-Unterstützungszoll"' auf den verbleibenden EU-Russland-Handel von knapp €60 Mrd. pro Jahr könnte bei Zollsätzen von 30-50% jährlich €6-16 Mrd. (partielles Gleichgewicht) bzw. €3-11 Mrd. (allgemeines Gleichgewicht) erbringen - mehr als die €3 Mrd. aus den Zinserträgen eingefrorener russischer Vermögenswerte Allgemeine Gleichgewichtssimulationen zeigen asymmetrische Kosten: Russlands-Wertschöpfung sinkt erheblich; das Instrument ist als langfristiges Druckmittel tragfähig. Handelsumlenkung nach China bleibt begrenzt. Extreme Sätze (300%+) sind kontraproduktiv. In diesem Papier analysieren wir ein kombiniertes Paket aus Importzöllen und Exportabgaben auf den verbleibenden EU-Russland-Handel. Institutionell ist die Importseite unter dem EU-Handelsrecht unkomplizierter, während die Exportseite rechtlich anspruchsvoller ist und voraussichtlich eine eigene rechtliche Ausgestaltung erfordert. An der ökonomischen Logik des kombinierten Vorschlags ändert diese Asymmetrie nichts - wohl aber an der Umsetzung.

Suggested Citation

  • Hinz, Julian & Schularick, Moritz, 2026. "Ein Unterstützungszoll für die Ukraine: Wie Europa die Ukraine unterstützen und Russland ökonomisch schwächen kann," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 341424, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:341424
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    References listed on IDEAS

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