IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/ifwedp/201650.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A theory of economic policy lock-in and lock-out via hysteresis: Rethinking economists' approach to economic policy

Author

Listed:
  • Palley, Thomas I.

Abstract

This paper explores lock-in and lock-out via economic policy. It argues policy decisions may near-irrevocably change the economy's structure, thereby changing its performance. That causes changed economic outcomes concerning distribution of wealth, income and power, which in turn induces locked-in changes in political outcomes. That is a different way of thinking about policy compared to conventional macroeconomic stabilization theory. The latter treats policy as a dial which is dialed up or down, depending on the economy's state. Lock-in policy is illustrated by the euro, globalization, and the neoliberal policy experiment.

Suggested Citation

  • Palley, Thomas I., 2016. "A theory of economic policy lock-in and lock-out via hysteresis: Rethinking economists' approach to economic policy," Economics Discussion Papers 2016-50, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201650
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/discussionpapers/2016-50
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/148422/1/875107095.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arthur, W Brian, 1989. "Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Lock-In by Historical Events," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(394), pages 116-131, March.
    2. D. Acemoglu & J. Robinson, 2013. "Economics versus politics: pitfalls of policy advice," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 12.
    3. David, Paul A, 1985. "Clio and the Economics of QWERTY," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(2), pages 332-337, May.
    4. Bassi, Federico & Lang, Dany, 2016. "Investment hysteresis and potential output: A post-Keynesian–Kaleckian agent-based approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 35-49.
    5. Cross,Rod Preface by-Name:Blanchard,Olivier (ed.), 1995. "The Natural Rate of Unemployment," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521483308, October.
    6. Thomas I. Palley, 1996. "Post Keynesian Economics," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-0-230-37412-6, December.
    7. Blanchard, Olivier J. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Hysteresis in unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 288-295.
    8. Palley,Thomas I., 2013. "From Financial Crisis to Stagnation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107612464, October.
    9. K. J. Arrow, 1971. "The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: F. H. Hahn (ed.), Readings in the Theory of Growth, chapter 11, pages 131-149, Palgrave Macmillan.
    10. Setterfield, Mark, 1997. "'History versus Equilibrium' and the Theory of Economic Growth," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 21(3), pages 365-378, May.
    11. Dani Rodrik, 2014. "When Ideas Trump Interests: Preferences, Worldviews, and Policy Innovations," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(1), pages 189-208, Winter.
    12. Thomas I. Palley, 1997. "The Academic Jungle: Social Practice and the Survival of Economic Ideas," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 29(3), pages 22-33, September.
    13. Thomas I. Palley, 1993. "Uncertainty, Expectations, and The Future: If We Don’t Know the Answers, What Are the Questions?," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 3-18, September.
    14. R. G. Lipsey & Kelvin Lancaster, 1956. "The General Theory of Second Best," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 24(1), pages 11-32.
    15. Cross, Rod, 1993. "On the Foundations of Hysteresis in Economic Systems," Economics and Philosophy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(1), pages 53-74, April.
    16. Avinash Dixit, 1989. "Hysteresis, Import Penetration, and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(2), pages 205-228.
    17. Thomas I. Palley, 1996. "Uncertainty and Expectations," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Post Keynesian Economics, chapter 6, pages 87-102, Palgrave Macmillan.
    18. Avinash Dixit, 1992. "Investment and Hysteresis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 107-132, Winter.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Thomas Palley, 2018. "Recovering Keynesian Phillips curve theory," FMM Working Paper 26-2018, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    2. Alexander Mikhailovich Batkovskiy & Viktor Antonovich Nesterov & Olga Olegovna Reshetova & Elena Georgievna Semenova & Alena Vladimirovna Fomina, 2017. "Dynamic Model of Optimal Production Control in a Hysteretic Behaviour of Economic Agents," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2A), pages 355-379.
    3. Mark Setterfield & Selen Ozcelik, 2017. "Is the balance of payments constrained growth rate time-varying? Exchange rate over valuation, policy-induced recessions, deindustrialization, and long run growth," Working Papers 1726, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    4. Gabriel Porcile & Diego Sanchez-Ancochea, 2021. "Institutional change and political conflict in a structuralist model [Paths to inclusive institutions]," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 45(6), pages 1269-1296.
    5. Steven M Fazzari & Piero Ferri & Anna Maria Variato, 2020. "Demand-led growth and accommodating supply," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 44(3), pages 583-605.
    6. Vishnu Padayachee, 2019. "Can progressive macroeconomic policy address growth and employment while reducing inequality in South Africa?," The Economic and Labour Relations Review, , vol. 30(1), pages 3-21, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Váry, Miklós, 2018. "A hiszterézis közgazdasági jelentőségéről posztkeynesi szemléletben [The economic relevance of hysteresis from a post-Keynesian perspective]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(10), pages 1006-1047.
    2. Mark Setterfield, 2015. "Path Dependency," Working Papers 1521, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    3. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/hiaqa97n684boj041a440irqd is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4h9cnu4n2k8tfri093jil1d739 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Setterfield, Mark & Gouri Suresh, Shyam, 2016. "Multi-agent systems as a tool for analyzing path-dependent macrodynamics," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 25-37.
    6. Giovanni Dosi & Marcelo Pereira & Andrea Roventini & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2018. "Causes et consequences of hysteresis : aggregate demand, productivity and employment," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/hiaqa97n684, Sciences Po.
    7. G Dosi & M C Pereira & A Roventini & M E Virgillito, 2018. "Causes and consequences of hysteresis: aggregate demand, productivity, and employment," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 27(6), pages 1015-1044.
    8. Giovanni Dosi & Marcelo C. Pereira & Andrea Roventini & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2018. "Causes et consequences of hysteresis : aggregate demand, productivity and employment," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/4h9cnu4n2k8, Sciences Po.
    9. Váry, Miklós, 2021. "The long-run real effects of monetary shocks: Lessons from a hybrid post-Keynesian-DSGE-agent-based menu cost model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    10. Pranab Bardhan, 1993. "Economics of Development and the Development of Economics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 129-142, Spring.
    11. Yu-Fu Chen & Gylfi Zoega, 2010. "Strong Hysteresis due to Age Effects," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 230, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
    12. Koray Yıldırım & Neşe Algan & Harun Bal, 2024. "Investment Hysteresis: An Empirical Essay Turkish Case," Evaluation Review, , vol. 48(1), pages 143-176, February.
    13. Gabriel P. Mathy, 2018. "Hysteresis and persistent long-term unemployment: the American Beveridge Curve of the Great Depression and World War II," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 12(1), pages 127-152, January.
    14. Georgii Riabov & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2021. "Policy with stochastic hysteresis," Papers 2104.10225, arXiv.org.
    15. Miguel A. León-Ledesma, 2002. "Cumulative Growth and the Catching-Up Debate From a Disequilibrium Standpoint," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: John McCombie & Maurizio Pugno & Bruno Soro (ed.), Productivity Growth and Economic Performance, chapter 8, pages 197-218, Palgrave Macmillan.
    16. Mehrdad Vahabi, 1998. "The Relevance of the Marshallian Concept of Normality in Interior and in Inertial Dynamics as Revisited by G. SHACKLE and J. KORNAI," Post-Print hal-00629181, HAL.
    17. Rosina Moreno & Ernest Miguélez, 2012. "A Relational Approach To The Geography Of Innovation: A Typology Of Regions," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 492-516, July.
    18. den Hartigh, E. & Langerak, F. & Commandeur, H.R., 2002. "The Effects of Self-Reinforcing Mechanisms on Firm Performance," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2002-46-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    19. Daron Acemoglu & James A. Robinson, 2008. "Persistence of Power, Elites, and Institutions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 267-293, March.
    20. Federico Bassi, 2020. "Chronic Excess Capacity and Unemployment Hysteresis in EU Countries. A Structural Approach," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def091, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    21. Cristiano Antonelli, 2011. "The Economic Complexity of Technological Change: Knowledge Interaction and Path Dependence," Chapters, in: Cristiano Antonelli (ed.), Handbook on the Economic Complexity of Technological Change, chapter 1, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    22. Silvano Cincotti & Wolfram Elsner & Nathalie Lazaric & Anastasia Nesvetailova & Engelbert Stockhammer, 2020. "Towards an evolutionary political economy. Editorial to the inaugural issue of the Review of Evolutionary Political Economy REPE," Review of Evolutionary Political Economy, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 1-12, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic policy; lock-in; hysteresis; globalization; euro; neoliberalism;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D7 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • F5 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy
    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
    • L5 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201650. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwkiede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.