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Pull-forward effects in the German car scrappage scheme: A time series approach

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  • Böckers, Veit
  • Heimeshoff,Ulrich
  • Müller, Andrea

Abstract

The focus of this paper is the empirical evaluation of the German Accelerated Vehicle Retirement program, that was implemented in January 2009 to stimulate automobile consumption. To adress this question a monthly dataset of new car registrations owned by private consumers from March 2001 until October 2011 is created. Especially small and upper small car segments seem to have profited from the scrappage program as they make up 84% of the newly registered cars during the program. Using uni- and multivariate time-series models counterfactual car registrations are estimated for vehicles from the small and upper small car segment. The results suggest that the policy has been successful in creating additional demand for new cars during the policy period. We also find a small contraction in the year after the end of the policy for the small market segment. For upper small cars the pull-forward effect could only be identified for the last quarter of the ex-post period. So in summary, the overall effect of the German car scrappage program is positive for the two market segments.

Suggested Citation

  • Böckers, Veit & Heimeshoff,Ulrich & Müller, Andrea, 2012. "Pull-forward effects in the German car scrappage scheme: A time series approach," DICE Discussion Papers 56, University of Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:dicedp:56
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    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/59001/1/717563790.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pasquale Schiraldi, 2011. "Automobile replacement: a dynamic structural approach," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 42(2), pages 266-291, June.
    2. Anna Alberini & Winston Harrington & Virginia McConnell, 1995. "Determinants of Participation in Accelerated Vehicle-Retirement Programs," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 26(1), pages 93-112, Spring.
    3. Ryan, Lisa & Ferreira, Susana & Convery, Frank, 2009. "The impact of fiscal and other measures on new passenger car sales and CO2 emissions intensity: Evidence from Europe," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 365-374, May.
    4. Jerome Adda & Russell Cooper, 2000. "Balladurette and Juppette: A Discrete Analysis of Scrapping Subsidies," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(4), pages 778-806, August.
    5. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2001. "Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262531895, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Paredes, Joan, 2017. "Subsidising car purchases in the euro area: any spill-over on production?," Working Paper Series 2094, European Central Bank.

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