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Is aid for trade effective? A quantile regression approach

Author

Listed:
  • Martinez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada
  • Nowak-Lehmann D., Felicitas
  • Rehwald, Kai

Abstract

This paper investigates whether Aid for Trade (AfT) improves export performance, i.e. does AfT lead to greater exports? Using panel data and panel quantile regression, our results suggest that overall AfT disbursements promote the export of goods and services mainly for the .50 and .75 quantiles. Our results also show that for some types of AfT this effect essentially vanishes at the lower tail of the conditional distribution of exports. Hence, countries that export more in volume are those benefiting most from AfT. We also investigate which types of AfT are effective. In particular, we find that aid used to build production capacity is effective. This type of aid is associated with higher exports for almost all quantiles, with the effect increasing at the upper tail of the conditional distribution. Aid used to build infrastructure is also found to affect exports at the upper tail of the distribution. In contrast, aid for trade policy and aid disbursed for general budget support (an untargeted type of aid) are not associated with greater export levels. This finding holds true irrespective of the quantile.

Suggested Citation

  • Martinez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada & Nowak-Lehmann D., Felicitas & Rehwald, Kai, 2014. "Is aid for trade effective? A quantile regression approach," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 210, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cegedp:210
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann & Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso & Dierk Herzer & Stephan Klasen & Adriana Cardozo, 2013. "Does foreign aid promote recipient exports to donor countries?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 149(3), pages 505-535, September.
    2. Laurent Wagner & Mariana Vijil, 2012. "Does Aid for Trade Export Performance? Investigating the Infrastructure Channel," Post-Print halshs-00726435, HAL.
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    5. Ivan A. Canay, 2011. "A simple approach to quantile regression for panel data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 14(3), pages 368-386, October.
    6. Felicitas Nowak‐Lehmann & Axel Dreher & Dierk Herzer & Stephan Klasen & Inmaculada Martínez‐Zarzoso, 2012. "Does foreign aid really raise per capita income? A time series perspective," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(1), pages 288-313, February.
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    8. Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2008. "Aid and Growth: What Does the Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 643-665, November.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    development aid; North-South trade; aid for trade; panel data; aid effectiveness;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General

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