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Why is price discovery in credit default swap markets news-specific?

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  • Marsh, Ian W.
  • Wagner, Wolf

Abstract

We analyse daily lead-lag patterns in US equity and credit default swap (CDS) returns. We first document that equity returns robustly lead CDS returns. However, we find that the CDS-lag is due to common (and not firm-specific) news and arises predominantly in response to positive (instead of negative) equity market news. We provide an explanation for this news-specific price discovery based on dealers in the CDS market exploiting their informational advantage vis-à-vis institutional investors with hedging demands. In support of this explanation we find that the CDS-lag and its news-specificity are related to various firm-level proxies for hedging demand in the cross-section as well measures for economy-wide informational asymmetries over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Marsh, Ian W. & Wagner, Wolf, 2012. "Why is price discovery in credit default swap markets news-specific?," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2012, Bank of Finland.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:rdp2012_006
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    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/212209/1/bof-rdp2012-006.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    9. Roberto Blanco & Simon Brennan & Ian W. Marsh, 2005. "An Empirical Analysis of the Dynamic Relation between Investment‐Grade Bonds and Credit Default Swaps," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2255-2281, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Procasky, William J. & Yin, Anwen, 2023. "Identifying the true nature of price discovery and cross-market informational flow in the investment grade CDS and equity markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    2. Procasky, William J. & Yin, Anwen, 2023. "The impact of COVID-19 on the relative market efficiency and forecasting ability of credit derivative and equity markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    3. Tölö, Eero & Jokivuolle, Esa & Virén, Matti, 2014. "Do private signals of a bank s creditworthiness predict the bank s CDS price? Evidence from the Eurosystem's overnight loan rates," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 9/2014, Bank of Finland.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit default swap; price discovery; informational efficiency; hedging demand;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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