Locked down in distress: a causal estimation of the mental-health fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK

There is an extensive literature documenting the economic impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic. A nascent literature is also beginning to detail the mental health impact. This research has, for instance, told us much regarding the initial impacts of lockdowns and stay-at-home orders for mental well-being, but a limitation with much of this work is that any reported findings generally cannot be taken as causal estimates. In this study, we use a large-scale longitudinal survey coupled with differences-in-differences and a regression-discontinuity design to estimate the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on mental health. We find substantive estimated increases in psychological distress for the population overall but these impacts are not uniformly distributed. Specifically, the costs in terms of mental health appear to be much more pronounced for females, those with children, members of the BAME community and migrants. A further particularly important moderating variable appears to be people’s own subjective assessment as to the adequacy of their income.