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Is Black Market Exchange Rate a Good Indicator of Equilibrium Exchange Rate? A Simple Test With Evidence From South Asia


  • M. Shahe Emran

    (Department of Economics and ESIA George Washington University; IPD Columbia University)

  • Forhad Shilpi

    (World Bank)


The black market exchange rate premium is widely used in the empirical literature as an indicator of trade and exchange rate distortions. This paper presents a simple test of the null hypothesis that the black market exchange rate is a reliable indicator of the equilibirum exchange rate. The evidence from India and Sri Lanka rejects the null, and thus raises serious doubts about the validity of the current empirical practice.

Suggested Citation

  • M. Shahe Emran & Forhad Shilpi, 2004. "Is Black Market Exchange Rate a Good Indicator of Equilibrium Exchange Rate? A Simple Test With Evidence From South Asia," Development and Comp Systems 0406005, EconWPA, revised 21 Jun 2004.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpdc:0406005
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 8

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y., 1995. "An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9514, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Mohammad Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J Smith, 1999. "Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Long Run Relationships," ESE Discussion Papers 46, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
    3. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    4. Durlauf, Steven N. & Quah, Danny T., 1999. "The new empirics of economic growth," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 235-308 Elsevier.
    5. Saul Lizondo, Jose, 1987. "Unification of dual exchange markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1-2), pages 57-77, February.
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    More about this item


    Black market exchange rate; Equilibrium exchange rate; Black market exchange premium; India; Sri Lanka; Growth Regressions;

    JEL classification:

    • O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth
    • P - Economic Systems


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