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Transmission of External and Internal Shocks In Argentina During the Convertibility Period: Some Empirical Findings From VARs

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    We use VARs to study the transmission of shocks in Argentina during the currency board regime. We focus on shocks to international commodity prices, U.S. monetary policy, the real effective exchange rate, and the sovereign risk premium on emerging market debt. Of those factors, only the sovereign risk premium affects output significantly, which we believe is really a proxy for beliefs about fiscal solvency. Both the monetary base and money market interest rates react to U.S. monetary policy, but such shocks do not affect Argentine output significantly. Finally, it does not appear that the appreciation of the U.S. dollar affected the economy adversely.

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    File URL: http://web.williams.edu/Economics/wp/geiregatSVARArgentinaPaper.pdf
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    Paper provided by Department of Economics, Williams College in its series Department of Economics Working Papers with number 2004-11.

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    Length: 28 pages
    Date of creation: Jul 2004
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:wil:wileco:2004-11
    Contact details of provider: Postal: Williamstown, MA 01267
    Phone: 413 597 2476
    Fax: 413 597 4045
    Web page: http://econ.williams.eduEmail:


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    1. Christopher A. Sims, 1992. "Interpreting the Macroeconomic Time Series Facts: The Effects of Monetary Policy," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1011, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    2. Ben S. Bernanke & Alan S. Blinder, 1989. "The federal funds rate and the channels of monetary transmission," Working Papers 89-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    3. Augusto de la Torre & Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2003. "Living and Dying with Hard Pegs: The Rise and Fall of Argentina's Currency Board," JOURNAL OF LACEA ECONOMIA, LACEA - LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION.
    4. Ben S. Bernanke, 1986. "Alternative Explanations of the Money-Income Correlation," NBER Working Papers 1842, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
    6. Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009, November.
    7. Kim, Soyoung, 2001. "International transmission of U.S. monetary policy shocks: Evidence from VAR's," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 339-372, October.
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