IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wii/wpaper/198.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Migration from Africa, the Middle East and European Neighbouring Countries to the EU: An Augmented Gravity Modelling Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Landesmann

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Isilda Mara

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

Abstract

The South-North migration corridor, i.e. migration flows to the EU from Africa, the Middle East and EU neighbouring countries in the East, have overtaken the East-West migration corridor, i.e. migration flows from Central and East European countries to the EU15 and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA). This is likely to dominate migration flows into the EU+EFTA over the coming decades. This paper applies a gravity modelling approach to analyse patterns and drivers of the South-North migration corridor over the period 1995-2020 and explores bilateral mobility patterns from 75 sending countries in Africa, the Middle East and other EU neighbours to the EU28 and EFTA countries. The study finds that income gaps, diverging demographic trends, institutional and governance features and persisting political instability, but also higher climate risks in the neighbouring regions of the EU, are fuelling migration flows along the South-North corridor and will most likely continue to do so.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Landesmann & Isilda Mara, 2021. "Migration from Africa, the Middle East and European Neighbouring Countries to the EU: An Augmented Gravity Modelling Approach," wiiw Working Papers 198, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
  • Handle: RePEc:wii:wpaper:198
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://wiiw.ac.at/migration-from-africa-the-middle-east-and-european-neighbouring-countries-to-the-eu-an-augmented-gravity-modelling-approach-dlp-5806.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bertoli, Simone & Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús, 2013. "Multilateral resistance to migration," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 79-100.
    2. Helmut Hofer & Michael Landesmann & Isilda Mara & Philip Schuster & Gerlinde Titelbach & Hermine Vidovic, 2013. "Auswirkungen der Arbeitsmarktöffnung am 1. Jänner 2014 auf den Wirtschafts- und Arbeitsstandort Österreich," wiiw Research Reports in German language 2013-10, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    3. Michael A. Clemens, 2014. "Does development reduce migration?," Chapters, in: Robert E.B. Lucas (ed.), International Handbook on Migration and Economic Development, chapter 6, pages 152-185, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Amelia Aburn & Dennis Wesselbaum, 2017. "Gone with the Wind: International Migration," Working Papers 1708, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2017.
    5. Sandra Kovacevic & Isilda Mara, 1970. "wiiw - POLMIG Database: An Inventory of Migration Policy Changes in Europe, 2013-2019," wiiw Statistical Reports 10, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    6. Isilda Mara & Hermine Vidovic, 2015. "Free Movement of Workers, Transitional Arrangements and Potential Mobility from Croatia," wiiw Research Reports 402, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    7. Larry A. Sjaastad, 1970. "The Costs and Returns of Human Migration," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Harry W. Richardson (ed.), Regional Economics, chapter 9, pages 115-133, Palgrave Macmillan.
    8. Dao, Thu Hien & Docquier, Frédéric & Parsons, Chris & Peri, Giovanni, 2018. "Migration and development: Dissecting the anatomy of the mobility transition," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 88-101.
    9. Andreas Backhaus & Inmaculada Martinez-Zarzoso & Chris Muris, 2015. "Do climate variations explain bilateral migration? A gravity model analysis," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-15, December.
    10. repec:ces:ifodic:v:13:y:2016:i:4:p:19189885 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Simone Bertoli & J. Fernandes-Huertas Moraga, 2013. "Multilateral resistance to migration," Post-Print halshs-00820169, HAL.
    12. Daniel Leithold, 2016. "Asylum in Europe," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 13(4), pages 55-58, 02.
    13. Robert E.B. Lucas (ed.), 2014. "International Handbook on Migration and Economic Development," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 15465.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Paul Clist & Gabriele Restelli, 2021. "Development aid and international migration to Italy: Does aid reduce irregular flows?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(5), pages 1281-1311, May.
    2. Bertoli, Simone & Moraga, Jesús Fernández-Huertas & Guichard, Lucas, 2020. "Rational inattention and migration decisions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    3. Simon Winter, 2020. "“It’s the Economy, Stupid!”: On the Relative Impact of Political and Economic Determinants on Migration," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 39(2), pages 207-252, April.
    4. Dao, Thu Hien & Docquier, Frédéric & Parsons, Chris & Peri, Giovanni, 2018. "Migration and development: Dissecting the anatomy of the mobility transition," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 88-101.
    5. Mauro Lanati & Rainer Thiele, 2020. "Foreign assistance and emigration: Accounting for the role of non‐transferred aid," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(7), pages 1951-1976, July.
    6. Imran Arif, 2020. "The determinants of international migration: Unbundling the role of economic, political and social institutions," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(6), pages 1699-1729, June.
    7. Lanati, Mauro & Thiele, Rainer, 2018. "The impact of foreign aid on migration revisited," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 59-74.
    8. Heidland, Tobias & Jannsen, Nils & Groll, Dominik & Kalweit, René & Boockmann, Bernhard, 2021. "Analyse und Prognose von Migrationsbewegungen," Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik 34, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    9. Joan Llull, 2016. "Understanding international migration: evidence from a new dataset of bilateral stocks (1960–2000)," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 221-255, June.
    10. Mariapia Mendola, 2018. "Global evidence on prospective migrants from developing countries," Working Papers 387, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised 19 Sep 2018.
    11. Friebel, Guido & Manchin, Miriam & Mendola, Mariapia & Prarolo, Giovanni, 2018. "International Migration Intentions and Illegal Costs: Evidence from Africa-to-Europe Smuggling Routes," IZA Discussion Papers 11978, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Marina Murat, 2020. "Foreign aid, bilateral asylum immigration and development," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 33(1), pages 79-114, January.
    13. Zukowska-Gagelmann, Katarzyna, 2017. "Do EU regional funds hamper or foster interregional migration? A panel data analysis for Poland," EconStor Preprints 170576, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    14. Leefmans,Naomi & Oomes,Nienke & Rojas Romagosa,Hugo Alexander & Vervliet,Tobias & Berthiaume,Nicolas, 2021. "A Reappraisal of the Migration-Development Nexus : Testing the Robustness of the Migration Transition Hypothesis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9518, The World Bank.
    15. Mathias Czaika & Christopher R. Parsons, 2017. "The Gravity of High-Skilled Migration Policies," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(2), pages 603-630, April.
    16. Lewis, John & Swannell, Matt, 2018. "The macroeconomic determinants of migration," Bank of England working papers 729, Bank of England.
    17. Friebel, Guido & Manchin, Miriam & Mendola, Mariapia & Prarolo, Giovanni, 2018. "International Migration Intentions and Illegal Costs: Evidence Using Africa-to-Europe Smuggling Routes," CEPR Discussion Papers 13326, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Djajic, Slobodan & Kirdar, Murat G. & Vinogradova, Alexandra, 2016. "Source-country earnings and emigration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 46-67.
    19. Simone Bertoli, 2017. "Is the Mediterranean the New Rio Grande? A Comment," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 3(2), pages 255-259, July.
    20. Dreher, Axel & Fuchs, Andreas & Langlotz, Sarah, 2019. "The effects of foreign aid on refugee flows," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 127-147.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Migration; Africa; Middle East; Eastern EU partnership countries; migration to EU; demographic developments; refugees; migration policies; gravity modelling; climate risks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wii:wpaper:198. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/wiiwwat.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Customer service (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/wiiwwat.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.