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TTIP and its Effects on Austria. A Critical Literature Survey

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  • Fritz Breuss


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    With a comprehensive Trade and Investment Agreement, called Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) the European Union and the USA aim at creating the world's largest free trade area. It should help to stimulate growth and create new jobs. All TTIP studies so far forecast positive trade, welfare and employment effects on both sides of the Atlantic (in various sizes). However, these foreseen gains are not realised now but only after a long period of adjustment. The TTIP hence is not able to overcome the current economic crisis. The estimated welfare gains vary strongly according to the method applied: CGE models come up with modest welfare gains between ½ and 1 percent of GDP; estimations with gravity equations, however, predict great gains (5 percent increase of real GDP per capita in the EU and 13.4 percent in the USA). The results for Austria (1.7 percent GDP growth in CGE models to 2.7 percent in gravity approaches) are somewhat in between these extremes. The results concerning the effects of third countries are politically explosive. Gravity studies indicate extraordinarily large losses in trade (trade diversion) and welfare. This could challenge the acceptance of TTIP at the WTO. Above all, NGOs and the interested public are increasingly sceptical about the seemingly lack of transparency of the TTIP negotiations. Therefore, the European Commission in spring 2014 paused the negotiations and launched public online consultation on investor protection in TTIP.

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    Paper provided by WIFO in its series WIFO Working Papers with number 468.

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    Length: 36 pages
    Date of creation: 12 May 2014
    Handle: RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2014:i:468
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    1. Benedikt Heid & Mario Larch, 2012. "International Trade and Unemployment: A Quantitative Framework," CESifo Working Paper Series 4013, CESifo Group Munich.
    2. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    3. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Prat, Julien & Schmerer, Hans-Jörg, 2011. "Globalization and labor market outcomes: Wage bargaining, search frictions, and firm heterogeneity," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 39-73, January.
    4. Lionel Fontagné & Julien Gourdon & Sébastien Jean, 2013. "Transatlantic Trade: Whither Partnership, Which Economic Consequences?," CEPII Policy Brief 2013-01, CEPII research center.
    5. Fritz Breuss, 2004. "WTO Dispute Settlement: An Economic Analysis of Four EU–US Mini Trade Wars—A Survey," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 275-315, December.
    6. Costinot, Arnaud & Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés, 2014. "Trade Theory with Numbers: Quantifying the Consequences of Globalization," Handbook of International Economics, Elsevier.
    7. David Gaukrodger & Kathryn Gordon, 2012. "Investor-State Dispute Settlement: A Scoping Paper for the Investment Policy Community," OECD Working Papers on International Investment 2012/3, OECD Publishing.
    8. Fritz Breuss & Joseph F. Francois, 2011. "EU-South Korea FTA – Economic Impact for the EU and Austria," FIW Policy Brief series 010, FIW.
    9. Gabriel Felbermayr & Mario Larch & Finn Krüger & Lisandra Flach & Erdal Yalcin & Sebastian Benz, 2013. "Dimensionen und Auswirkungen eines Freihandelsabkommens zwischen der EU und den USA," ifo Forschungsberichte, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 62, February.
    10. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    11. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2004. "Economic determinants of free trade agreements," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 29-63, October.
    12. David Gaukrodger, 2013. "Investment Treaties as Corporate Law: Shareholder Claims and Issues of Consistency," OECD Working Papers on International Investment 2013/3, OECD Publishing.
    13. Joachim Pohl & Kekeletso Mashigo & Alexis Nohen, 2012. "Dispute Settlement Provisions in International Investment Agreements: A Large Sample Survey," OECD Working Papers on International Investment 2012/2, OECD Publishing.
    14. Raza, Werner & Grumiller, Jan & Taylor, Lance & Tröster, Bernhard & von Arnim, Rudi, 2014. "ASSESS_TTIP: Assessing the claimed benefits of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership," Policy Notes 10/2014, Österreichische Forschungsstiftung für Internationale Entwicklung (ÖFSE) / Austrian Foundation for Development Research.
    15. Fritz Breuss, 2013. "Europe as a Global Player," WIFO Working Papers 455, WIFO.
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