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From demographic dividend to demographic burden ? regional trends of population aging in Russia

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  • Matytsin,Mikhail
  • Moorty,Lalita M.
  • Richter,Kaspar

Abstract

Do regions with higher working age populations grow faster? This paper examines this question using data from Russian regions and finds evidence that demographic trends influence regional growth convergence. In other words, keeping other factors constant, poorer regions grow faster than richer regions, and some of the growth convergence is explained by demographic changes: faster growth in poor regions in the past was related in part to more favorable demographic trends. This finding has important consequences for Russia. If the demographic trends in poorer regions worsen in the future, this could dampen economic convergence. Unless there are significant increases in labor productivity or additions to the labor force through migration, growth in Russian regions will moderate as the Russian population shrinks and ages in the coming decades.

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  • Matytsin,Mikhail & Moorty,Lalita M. & Richter,Kaspar, 2015. "From demographic dividend to demographic burden ? regional trends of population aging in Russia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7501, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7501
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Bloom, David E & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 1998. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 12(3), pages 419-455, September.
    3. Aiyar, Shekhar & Mody, Ashoka, 2013. "The Demographic Dividend: Evidence from the Indian States," India Policy Forum, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 9(1), pages 105-148.
    4. Xavier Sala-I-Martin, 1997. "Transfers, Social Safety Nets, and Economic Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(1), pages 81-102, March.
    5. Frank Eich & Mauricio Soto & Ms. Charleen A Gust, 2012. "Reforming the Public Pension System in the Russian Federation," IMF Working Papers 2012/201, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Irina Denisova, 2010. "Adult mortality in Russia," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 18(2), pages 333-363, April.
    7. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
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    Cited by:

    1. Victoria Levin, 2015. "Promoting Active Aging in Russia," World Bank Publications - Reports 22613, The World Bank Group.
    2. Jian Zhou & Jingjing Deng & Li Li & Shuang Wang, 2023. "The Demographic Dividend or the Education Dividend? Evidence from China’s Economic Growth," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-17, April.

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