IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/7214.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

No condition is permanent : middle class in Nigeria in the last decade

Author

Listed:
  • Corral Rodas,Paul Andres
  • Molini,Vasco
  • Oseni,Gbemisola O.

Abstract

The economic debate on existence and definition of the middle class has become particularly lively in many developing countries. Despite this growing interest, the identification of the middle class group in these countries remains quite challenging. Building on a recently developed framework to define the middle class, this paper tries to estimate the Nigerian middle class size in a rigorous quantitative manner. By exploiting publicly available panel data, the expenditure associated to a 10 percent probability of falling into poverty is estimated, and this is used as the middle class threshold for Nigeria. The threshold expenditure for the middle class in Nigeria is found to be 378.39 Naira per capita per day (2010 PPP). Relying on this threshold and through survey-to-survey imputation the size of Nigeria's middle class in 2003 is also estimated. The results show that there has been considerable improvement on the size of the middle class and poverty reduction between 2003 and 2013. Poverty decreased between 2003 and 2013 from 45 to 33 percent, while the middle class increased from 13 percent to 19 percent. Nevertheless the results still paint a heterogeneous picture of poverty and the middle class in Nigeria, where the largest portion of the population, although above the poverty threshold, continues to live with average or high vulnerability to poverty.

Suggested Citation

  • Corral Rodas,Paul Andres & Molini,Vasco & Oseni,Gbemisola O., 2015. "No condition is permanent : middle class in Nigeria in the last decade," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7214, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7214
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2015/03/16/090224b082c2dbfb/1_0/Rendered/PDF/No0condition0i0a0in0the0last0decade.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fabio Clementi & Andrew L. Dabalen & Vasco Molini & Francesco Schettino, 2014. "The Centre Cannot Hold: Patterns of Polarization in Nigeria," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2014-149, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. Clementi, Fabio & Dabalen, Andrew L. & Molini, Vasco & Schettino, Francesco, 2014. "The centre cannot hold: Patterns of polarization in Nigeria," WIDER Working Paper Series 149, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Easterly, William, 2001. "The Middle Class Consensus and Economic Development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 317-335, December.
    4. Branko Milanovic & Shlomo Yitzhak, 2006. "Decomposing World Income Distribution: Does The World Have A Middle Class?," IBT Journal of Business Studies (JBS), Ilma University, Faculty of Management Science, vol. 2(2), pages 88-110.
    5. F. Clementi & A. L. Dabalen & V. Molini & F. Schettino, 2017. "When the Centre Cannot Hold: Patterns of Polarization in Nigeria," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 63(4), pages 608-632, December.
    6. Partridge, Mark D, 1997. "Is Inequality Harmful for Growth? Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(5), pages 1019-1032, December.
    7. Solimano, Andrés, 2008. "The middle class and the development process," Macroeconomía del Desarrollo 5432, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    8. David T. Geithman, 1974. "Middle Class Growth and Economic Development in Latin America," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(1), pages 45-58, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Odozi, John Chiwuzulum & Oyelere, Ruth Uwaifo, 2019. "Conflict Exposure and Economic Welfare in Nigeria," GLO Discussion Paper Series 334, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    2. Corral, Paul & Radchenko, Natalia, 2017. "What’s So Spatial about Diversification in Nigeria?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 231-253.
    3. Rick Mourits & Luuk Van Kempen, 2016. "How Do the Middle Class and the Poor Grow Apart? An Empirical Test of the Psychological Well-Being Pathway in Middle-Income Countries," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 28(5), pages 893-915, November.
    4. Schettino, Francesco & Gabriele, Alberto & Khan, Haider A., 2021. "Polarization and the middle class in China: A non-parametric evaluation using CHNS and CHIP data," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 251-264.
    5. Clementi,Fabio & Fabiani,Michele & Molini,Vasco & Schettino,Francesco, 2022. "Is Inequality Systematically Underestimated in Sub-Saharan Africa ? A Proposal toOvercome the Problem," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10058, The World Bank.
    6. Nikodemska-Wołowik Anna Maria & Wach Dagmara & Andruszkiewicz Katarzyna & Otukoya Ade, 2021. "Conscious shopping of middle-class consumers during the pandemic: Exploratory study in Mexico, Nigeria, Poland, and Sri Lanka," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 57(3), pages 209-219, September.
    7. Khan, Haider & Schettino, Francesco, 2018. "Income Polarization in the USA (1983-2016): what happened to the middle class?," MPRA Paper 85554, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. F. Clementi & A. L. Dabalen & V. Molini & F. Schettino, 2020. "We forgot the middle class! Inequality underestimation in a changing Sub-Saharan Africa," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 18(1), pages 45-70, March.
    9. Ibok, Otu W. & Osbahr, Henny & Srinivasan, Chittur, 2019. "Advancing a new index for measuring household vulnerability to food insecurity," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 10-20.
    10. Schettino, Francesco & Khan, Haider A., 2020. "Income polarization in the USA: What happened to the middle class in the last few decades?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 149-161.
    11. Olusegun Felix Ayadi & Ladelle M. Hyman & Johnnie Williams & Bettye Desselle, 2018. "How Effective Is Resource Stabilization Fund in a Mono-product Economy?," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 19(4), pages 842-858, August.
    12. Rocco Zizzamia & Simone Schotte & Murray Leibbrandt & Vimal Ranchhod, 2016. "Vulnerability and the Middle Class in South Africa," SALDRU Working Papers 188, Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit, University of Cape Town.
    13. World Bank, 2016. "Poverty Reduction in Nigeria in the Last Decade," World Bank Publications - Reports 25825, The World Bank Group.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vasiliy A. Anikin & Yulia P. Lezhnina & Svetlana V. Mareeva & Ekaterina D. Slobodenyuk & Nataliya N. Tikhonovà, 2016. "Income Stratification: Key Approaches and Their Application to Russia," HSE Working papers WP BRP 02/PSP/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    2. Florencia Torche & Luis F. Lopez-Calva, 2013. "Stability and Vulnerability of the Latin American Middle Class," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(4), pages 409-435, December.
    3. Gustavo Canavire‐Bacarreza & Michael Jetter & Marcos Robles, 2018. "When Does Economic Growth Reduce Poverty and Strengthen the Middle Class? A State‐Level, Sector‐Specific Analysis of Peru," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 84(4), pages 1067-1087, April.
    4. Mariam Shahzadi & Muhammad Faraz Riaz & Sofia Anwar & Samia Nasreen, 2017. "How unequal is the size of middle class in the rural urban areas of Punjab province," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 44(2), pages 253-266, February.
    5. Schettino, Francesco & Gabriele, Alberto & Khan, Haider A., 2021. "Polarization and the middle class in China: A non-parametric evaluation using CHNS and CHIP data," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 251-264.
    6. Florencia Torche & Luis F. Lopez-Calva, 2013. "Stability and Vulnerability of the Latin American Middle Class," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(4), pages 409-435, December.
    7. Yuan, Zhang & Wan, Guanghua & Khor, Niny, 2011. "The Rise of the Middle Class in the People's Republic of China," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 247, Asian Development Bank.
    8. World Bank, 2016. "Poverty Reduction in Nigeria in the Last Decade," World Bank Publications - Reports 25825, The World Bank Group.
    9. Ordeñana, Xavier & Arteaga, Elizabeth, 2012. "Middle-Class Entrepreneurship and the Effect of Social Capital," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 4037, Inter-American Development Bank.
    10. Berrou, Jean-Philippe & Clément, Matthieu & Combarnous, François & Darbon, Dominique & Fauré, Yves-André, 2020. "Anatomy of the Brazilian middle class: identification, behaviours and expectations," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    11. Ravallion, Martin, 2010. "The Developing World's Bulging (but Vulnerable) Middle Class," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 445-454, April.
    12. C�line Bonnefond & Matthieu Cl�ment & Fran�ois Combarnous, 2015. "In search of the elusive Chinese urban middle class: an exploratory analysis," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1), pages 41-59, March.
    13. Eduardo Lora & Johanna Fajardo, 2013. "Latin American Middle Classes: The Distance Between Perception and Reality," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2013), pages 33-60, August.
    14. Vyacheslav Bobkov & Peter Herrmann & Igor Kolmakov & Yelena Odintsova, 2018. "Two-Criterion Model of the Russian Society Stratification by Income and Housing Security," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(4), pages 1061-1075.
    15. Orlando Zambrano Roman, 2020. "An emerging but vulnerable middle class: a description of trends in Asia and the Pacific," Asia-Pacific Sustainable Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 27(1), pages 1-20, June.
    16. Durr-e-Nayab, 2011. "Estimating the Middle Class in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 50(1), pages 1-28.
    17. Reham Rizk & Ricardo Nogales, 2017. "Revisiting the Middle-Class Myth: Evidence From A Cross-Country Analysis of African Social Progress," Working Papers 1139, Economic Research Forum, revised 09 2003.
    18. Jean-Philippe BERROU & Matthieu CLÉMENT & François COMBARNOUS & Dominique DARBON & Yves-André FAURE & Éric ROUGIER, 2019. "L’essor des classes moyennes dans les pays en développement et émergents : une étude comparative des enjeux d’identification, de caractérisation et de politiques publiques," Working Paper d25da1cf-d9d8-4336-9930-b, Agence française de développement.
    19. Tsiry ANDRIANAMPIARIVO, 2014. "Moderate Prosperity, an adaptation of the Middle Class concept to a Malagasy rural area: the case of Itasy," Cahiers du GREThA (2007-2019) 2014-20, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée (GREThA).
    20. Prieto Suarez, Joaquin, 2023. "Degrees of vulnerability to poverty: a low-income dynamics approach for Chile," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121993, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Regional Economic Development; Inequality; Social Inclusion&Institutions; Urban Partnerships&Poverty; Economic Development;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7214. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.