IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/2421.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Contractual savings or stock market development - Which leads?

Author

Listed:
  • Catalan, Mario
  • Impavido, Gregorio
  • Musalem, Alberto R.

Abstract

The authors study the relationship between the development of contractual savings (assets of pension funds, and life insurance companies) and non-life insurance, and, the development of stock markets (market capitalization and value traded). Their contribution lies in providing time-series evidence on a hypothesis that is very popular - but had not been substantiated - among supporters of fully funded pension systems in which funds invest large shares of their portfolios in tradable securities (equities, bonds). The literature is not clear on its assumption regarding causality between contractual savings, and capital market development. A one-way or two-way relationship is assumed, usually inter-changeably; the authors address the questions of which leads empirically. They present the evidence, including descriptive statistics, and the results of Granger causality tests, for OECD countries, and such countries as Chile, Malaysia, Singapore, South Africa, and Thailand. They do not present a theoretical framework, but do explain how the growth of the contractual savings sector, is thought to promote financial development. The authors find evidence in the data that causality between institutions, and markets either does not exist, or, if it exists, runs predominantly from institutions to markets. To a lesser extent, there is simultaneous causality between institutions, and markets. Furthermore, there is limited evidence that causality runsonly from markets to institutions (the only exception seems to be for non-life insurance in developing countries). Results seem to support the idea that the development of institutional investors, is likely to promote the growth of market capitalization, more than that of value traded. In developing countries, there seems to be no causality from pension funds to growth in value traded, while there is causality from life, and non-life insurance.

Suggested Citation

  • Catalan, Mario & Impavido, Gregorio & Musalem, Alberto R., 2000. "Contractual savings or stock market development - Which leads?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2421, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:2421
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2000/10/13/000094946_00091205364559/Rendered/PDF/multi_page.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Feldstein, Martin, 1996. "The Missing Piece in Policy Analysis: Social Security Reform," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 1-14, May.
    2. Ross Levine, 1997. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 688-726, June.
    3. Demirguc-Kunt, Ash & Levine, Ross, 1996. "Stock Markets, Corporate Finance, and Economic Growth: An Overview," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 10(2), pages 223-239, May.
    4. Levine, Ross & Zervos, Sara, 1996. "Stock Market Development and Long-Run Growth," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 10(2), pages 323-339, May.
    5. Asher, Mukul G., 1999. "The pension system in Singapore," Social Protection Discussion Papers and Notes 20848, The World Bank.
    6. Jeannine Bailliu & Helmut Reisen, 1998. "Do funded pensions contribute to higher aggregate savings? A cross-country analysis," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 134(4), pages 692-711, December.
    7. Feldstein, Martin, 1978. "Do private pensions increase national savings?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 277-293, December.
    8. Douglas W. Diamond, 1984. "Financial Intermediation and Delegated Monitoring," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(3), pages 393-414.
    9. Boyd, John & Smith, Bruce, 1996. "The Coevolution of the Real and Financial Sectors in the Growth Process," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 10(2), pages 371-396, May.
    10. Feldstein, Martin S, 1974. "Social Security, Induced Retirement, and Aggregate Capital Accumulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(5), pages 905-926, Sept./Oct.
    11. Demirguc-Kunt, Ash & Maksimovic, Vojislav, 1996. "Stock Market Development and Financing Choices of Firms," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 10(2), pages 341-369, May.
    12. Vittas, Dimitri, 1998. "The role of non-bank financial intermediaries (with particular reference to Egypt)," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1892, The World Bank.
    13. Impavido, Gregorio & Musalem, Alberto R., 2000. "Contractual savings, stock, and asset markets," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2490, The World Bank.
    14. Iglesias, Augusto & Palacios, Robert J., 2000. "Managing public pension reserves - Part I : evidence from the international experience," Social Protection Discussion Papers and Notes 21311, The World Bank.
    15. Schmidt-Hebbel,Klaus & Servén,Luis (ed.), 1999. "The Economics of Saving and Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521632959, October.
    16. Mr. Philip R. Gerson & Mr. George A Mackenzie & Mr. Alfredo Cuevas, 1997. "Pension Regimes and Saving," IMF Occasional Papers 1997/006, International Monetary Fund.
    17. repec:imf:imfops:153 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    19. Fama, Eugene F., 1985. "What's different about banks?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 29-39, January.
    20. Munnell, Alicia H, 1976. "Private Pensions and Saving: New Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(5), pages 1013-1032, October.
    21. Vittas, Dimitri & Skully, Michael, 1991. "Overview of contractual savings institutions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 605, The World Bank.
    22. Robert Holzmann, 1997. "Pension Reform, Financial Market Development, and Economic Growth: Preliminary Evidence from Chile," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(2), pages 149-178, June.
    23. Andrew A. Samwick, 2000. "Is Pension Reform Conducive to Higher Saving?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 264-272, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Impavido, Gregorio & Musalem, Alberto R., 2000. "Contractual savings, stock, and asset markets," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2490, The World Bank.
    2. Salvatore Capasso, 2006. "Stock Market Development and Economic Growth," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2006-102, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Dr. Manoj S. Kamat & Dr Manasvi, 2015. "Financial Intermediation and Stock Market Activity Growth: A Causality- Co-Integration Approach," Indian Journal of Commerce and Management Studies, Educational Research Multimedia & Publications,India, vol. 6(2), pages 01-10, May.
    4. Keith Blackburn & Niloy Bose & Salvatore Capasso, 2005. "Financial Development, Financing Choice and Economic Growth," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 135-149, May.
    5. Arnold, Lutz & Walz, Uwe, 2000. "Financial regimes, capital structure, and growth," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 491-508, September.
    6. Ashok Thomas & Luca Spataro, 2013. "Pension funds and Market Efficiency: A review," Discussion Papers 2013/164, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    7. Salvatore Capasso, 2006. "Stock Market Development and Economic Growth: A Matter of Information Dynamics," CSEF Working Papers 166, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    8. Bishnu Prasad Gautam Ph.D., 2014. "Financial Development and Economic Growth in Nepal," NRB Working Paper 25/2014, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department.
    9. Bose, Niloy, 2005. "Endogenous growth and the emergence of equity finance," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 173-188, June.
    10. Lee, Bong-Soo, 2012. "Bank-based and market-based financial systems: Time-series evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 173-197.
    11. Riccardo Lucchetti & Luca Papi & Alberto Zazzaro, 2001. "Banks’ Inefficiency and Economic Growth: A Micro‐Macro Approach," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 48(4), pages 400-424, September.
    12. Valeriano F. García & Lin Liu, 1999. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Market Development," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 2, pages 29-59, May.
    13. Rabindra Nath Chakraborty, 1999. "Finanzkrise und der Aufbau der Alterssicherung: Das Beispiel Thailand," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 68(1), pages 36-50.
    14. Impavido, Gregorio & Musalem, Alberto R. & Vittas, Dimitri, 2002. "Contractual savings in countries with a small financial sector," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2841, The World Bank.
    15. Luintel, Kul B. & Khan, Mosahid & Arestis, Philip & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2008. "Financial structure and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 181-200, April.
    16. Ruiz, Jose L., 2018. "Financial development, institutional investors, and economic growth," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 218-224.
    17. S Capasso, 2003. "Stock Market Development and Economic Growth: A matter of informational problems," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 32, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    18. Ashok Thomas & Luca Spataro, 2016. "The Effects Of Pension Funds On Markets Performance: A Review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 1-33, February.
    19. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 2000. "Capital Flows and the Behavior of Emerging Market Equity Returns," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 159-194, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Howard Bodenhorn, 2016. "Two Centuries of Finance and Growth in the United States, 1790-1980," Working Papers id:11352, eSocialSciences.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:2421. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.