IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/1279.html

Optimal hedging strategy revisited : acknowledging the existence of nonstationary economic timeseries

Author

Listed:
  • Ying Qian
  • Duncan, Ronald
  • DEC

Abstract

Recognizing that a country's commodity prices, foreign exchange rates, and export earnings are related, earlier studies developed an optimal portfolio model based on an integrated approach. But the estimates were inefficient because they summed that the time series data used in the model were stationary. As a result, the model produced unstable solutions that were sensitive to exogenous changes. Many economic time series - include aggregate consumption, national income, exchange rates, interest rates, commodity prices, and volume of trade - are nonstationary (drift over time). A shock to the nonstationary series has a permanent effect. Problems of nonsense regression or spurious regression can rise when performing regression with nonstationary series. To correct the problem, the authors used Engle and Granger's (1987) vector error correction (VEC) specification in the optimal portfolio estimation process. The VEC approach expands the application of the optimal portfolio model to nonstationary economic time series data. They apply the new approach to data for Papua New Guinea in an analysis of optimal hedging of commodity price and exchange rate risks using commodity-linked bonds and varying the mix of foreign-currency-dominated borrowings. They find the time series of commodity prices and foreign exchange rate to be nonstationary. When the VEC approach is applied, the results are comparable to those from the earlier study where the nonstationary was ignored. The optimal portfolio of commodity-linked bonds and foreign currency borrowings derived from the new model shows more significant risk reduction (measured by ex-ante risk reduction) and less sensitivity to changes in assumption about the real interest rate. In addition, establishing the cointegration relationships among the commodity prices and foreign exchange rates makes it easier to develop economic institutions in explaining the composition of the optimal portfolio. TheVEC's most significant advantage, however, is the stability achieved in the optimal portfolio solutions to changes in assumptions because of the superior long-run properties of the cointegration and error-correction representation.

Suggested Citation

  • Ying Qian & Duncan, Ronald & DEC, 1994. "Optimal hedging strategy revisited : acknowledging the existence of nonstationary economic timeseries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1279, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:1279
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/1994/03/01/000009265_3961006045251/Rendered/PDF/multi0page.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    2. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 1980. "Formulating and estimating dynamic linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 7-46, May.
    3. Claessens, Stijn & Qian, Ying, 1991. "Risk management in sub-Saharan Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 593, The World Bank.
    4. Alogoskoufis, George & Smith, Ron, 1991. "On Error Correction Models: Specification, Interpretation, Estimation," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 97-128.
    5. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1987. "Exchange Rates and Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 93-106, March.
    6. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-144, January.
    7. Robert Engle & Clive Granger, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    8. P. C. B. Phillips & S. N. Durlauf, 1986. "Multiple Time Series Regression with Integrated Processes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 53(4), pages 473-495.
    9. Coleman, Jonathan R. & Ying Qian, 1991. "Managing financial risks in Papua New Guinea : an optimal external debt portfolio," Policy Research Working Paper Series 739, The World Bank.
    10. Robert J. Myers & Stanley R. Thompson, 1989. "Optimal Portfolios of External Debt in Developing Countries: The Potential Role of Commodity-Linked Bonds," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 71(2), pages 517-522.
    11. West, Kenneth D, 1988. "Asymptotic Normality, When Regressors Have a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1397-1417, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. C. W. Morgan & A. J. Rayner & C. Vaillant, 1999. "Agricultural futures markets in LDCs: a policy response to price volatility?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 893-910.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lütkepohl, Helmut, 1999. "Vector autoregressions," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1999,4, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    2. Lütkepohl, Helmut, 1999. "Vector autoregressive analysis," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1999,31, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    3. Miller, Stephen M. & Russek, Frank S., 1996. "Do federal deficits affect interest rates? Evidence from three econometric methods," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 403-428.
    4. Titus O. Awokuse, 2003. "Is the export-led growth hypothesis valid for Canada?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 36(1), pages 126-136, February.
    5. Isabel Cortés-Jiménez & Manuel Artís, 2005. "The role of the tourism sector in economic development - Lessons from the Spanish experience," ERSA conference papers ersa05p488, European Regional Science Association.
    6. Onafowora, Olugbenga A. & Owoye, Oluwole, 1998. "Can Trade Liberalization Stimulate Economic Growth in Africa?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 497-506, March.
    7. Demetriades, Panicos O. & Hussein, Khaled A., 1996. "Does financial development cause economic growth? Time-series evidence from 16 countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 387-411, December.
    8. Sulaiman, Saidu & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Is liberalizing finance the game in town for Nigeria ?," MPRA Paper 95569, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Norah Al-Ballaa, 2005. "Test for cointegration based on two-stage least squares," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(7), pages 707-713.
    10. Neeraj, & Panigrahi, Prasanta K., 2017. "Causality and correlations between BSE and NYSE indexes: A Janus faced relationship," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 481(C), pages 284-313.
    11. Levent KORAP, 2008. "Exchange Rate Determination Of Tl/Us$:A Co-Integration Approach," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 7(1), pages 24-50, May.
    12. Wu, Jyh-lin, 1998. "Are budget deficits "too large"?: The evidence from Taiwan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 519-528.
    13. Man-Keun Kim & Kangil Lee, 2015. "Dynamic Interactions between Carbon and Energy Prices in the U.S. Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(2), pages 494-501.
    14. Philippe Gudin & Antoine Magnier & Nicolas Ponty, 1991. "Taux d'intérêt : une asymétrie moins forte," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 246(1), pages 55-63.
    15. Ebenezer, Appiah Collins & Jatoe, John Baptist D. & Mensa-Bonsu, Akwasi, "undated". "Food Price Sensitivity To Changes In Petroleum Price And Exchange Rate In Ghana: A Cointegration Analysis," 2018 Conference (2nd), August 8-11, Kumasi, Ghana 277791, Ghana Association of Agricultural Economists.
    16. Myers, Robert J., 1994. "Time Series Econometrics and Commodity Price Analysis: A Review," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 62(02), pages 1-15, August.
    17. António Afonso & Joshua Jablonowski, 2025. "Fiscal Regimes And Sustainability: Insights From Post-War Germany," Working Papers REM 2025/0392, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    18. Hanan Naser, 2015. "Can Nuclear Energy Stimulates Economic Growth? Evidence from Highly Industrialised Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(1), pages 164-173.
    19. Bosupeng, Mpho, 2016. "The Effects of Chinese Interest Rates and Inflation: A Decomposition of The Fisher Effect," MPRA Paper 78160, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2016.
    20. Shehu Usman Rano, Aliyu, 2007. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignment: An Application of Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) to Nigeria," MPRA Paper 10376, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:1279. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.