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Quantifying War-Induced Crop Losses in Ukraine in Near Real Time to Strengthen Local andGlobal Food Security

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  • Deininger,Klaus W.
  • Ali,Daniel Ayalew
  • Kussul,Nataliia
  • Shelestov,Andrii Yu
  • Lemoine,Guido
  • Yailimova,Hanna

Abstract

This paper uses a 4-year panel (2019–2022) of 10,125 village councils in Ukraine toestimate direct and indirect effects of the war started by Russia on area and expected yield of winter crops. Satelliteimagery is used to provide information on direct damage to agricultural fields; classify crop cover using machinelearning; and compute the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for winter cereal fields as a proxy for yield.Without conflict, winter crop area would have been 9.14 rather than 8.38 mn. ha, a 0.75 mn. ha reduction, 86% ofwhich is due to economy-wide effects. The estimated conflict-induced drop in NDVI for winter cereal, which isparticularly pronounced for small farms, translates into a 15% yield reduction or an output loss of 4.2 million tons.Taking area and yield reduction together suggests a war-induced loss of winter crop output of 20% if the currentwinter crop can be harvested fully.

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  • Deininger,Klaus W. & Ali,Daniel Ayalew & Kussul,Nataliia & Shelestov,Andrii Yu & Lemoine,Guido & Yailimova,Hanna, 2022. "Quantifying War-Induced Crop Losses in Ukraine in Near Real Time to Strengthen Local andGlobal Food Security," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10123, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10123
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marten Graubner & Igor Ostapchuk & Taras Gagalyuk, 2021. "Agroholdings and land rental markets: a spatial competition perspective," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 48(1), pages 158-206.
    2. Klaus Deininger & Denys Nizalov & Sudhir K Singh, 2018. "Determinants of Productivity and Structural Change in a Large Commercial Farm Environment: Evidence from Ukraine," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 32(2), pages 287-306.
    3. Anna D'Souza & Dean Jolliffe, 2014. "Food Insecurity in Vulnerable Populations: Coping with Food Price Shocks in Afghanistan," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 96(3), pages 790-812.
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