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Inflation Targets Versus International Monetary Integration: A Canadian Perspective

The debate about whether Canada should seek some form of monetary integration with the United States is surveyed. It is argued that the choice here is among overall monetary orders, rather than among exchange rate regimes considered in isolation, with particular attention needing to be paid to questions of the credibility of policy and the accountability of policy makers. Canada's recent economic performance under its current monetary order -- inflation targets, underpinned by a flexible exchange rate, and pursued by accountable policy makers -- is assessed, and arguments that the flexible exchange rate has undermined the economy's real performance are analysed. Alternative orders are considered. It is concluded that the most economically attractive among them -- negotiated adoption by Canada of the US dollar with provision being made for meaningful Canadian input into policy decisions and the supervision and oversight of the monetary system -- is not politically attainable, and that the economic and political drawbacks associated with intermediate arrangements are large enough to render them clearly inferior to Canada's current monetary order.

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Paper provided by University of Western Ontario, Economic Policy Research Institute in its series University of Western Ontario, Economic Policy Research Institute Working Papers with number 20023.

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Date of creation: 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:uwo:epuwoc:20023
Contact details of provider: Postal: Economic Policy Research Institute, Social Science Centre, University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada N6A 5C2
Phone: 519-661-2111 Ext.85244
Web page: http://economics.uwo.ca/research/research_papers/epri_workingpapers.html

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  1. John Murray & James Powell, 2002. "Dollarization in Canada: The Buck Stops There," Technical Reports 90, Bank of Canada.
  2. Michael R. Pakko & Howard J. Wall, 2001. "Reconsidering the trade-creating effects of a currency union," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 37-46.
  3. McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-23, June.
  4. Laurence M. Ball & Niamh Sheridan, 2004. "Does Inflation Targeting Matter?," NBER Chapters, in: The Inflation-Targeting Debate, pages 249-282 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "Estimating the Effect of Currency Unions on Trade and Output," NBER Working Papers 7857, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Laidler, David, 1999. "The Exchange Rate Regime and Canada's Monetary Order," Working Papers 99-7, Bank of Canada.
  7. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
  8. Kenneth Rogoff & Yu-chin Chen, 2002. "Commodity Currencies and Empirical Exchange Rate Puzzles," IMF Working Papers 02/27, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Dirk Pilat, 2001. "Productivity Growth in the OECD Area: Some Recent Findings," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 3, pages 32-44, Fall.
  10. Fischer, Stanley, 1995. "Central-Bank Independence Revisited," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(2), pages 201-06, May.
  11. Amano, Robert A. & van Norden, Simon, 1995. "Terms of trade and real exchange rates: the Canadian evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 83-104, February.
  12. Neumann, Manfred J. M. & von Hagen, J├╝rgen, 2002. "Does inflation targeting matter?," ZEI Working Papers B 01-2002, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  13. Thom, Rodney & Walsh, Brendan, 2002. "The effect of a currency union on trade: Lessons from the Irish experience," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 1111-1123, June.
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