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The US-China Trade Imbalance: Will Revaluing the RMB Help (Much)?


  • Nicolaas Groenewold

    () (UWA Business School, University of Western Australia)

  • Lei He

    (UWA Business School, University of Western Australia)


The large US-China trade imbalance is a common cause for concern and regularly blamed on the undervaluation of the RMB. We estimate a simple model of the trade balance and simulate the long-run effects on the trade balance of RMB revaluations in the range of 10-50%. We find that improvements in the trade balance following plausible revaluations are likely to be modest.

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  • Nicolaas Groenewold & Lei He, 2006. "The US-China Trade Imbalance: Will Revaluing the RMB Help (Much)?," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 06-27, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:uwa:wpaper:06-27

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    1. Rose, Andrew K. & Yellen, Janet L., 1989. "Is there a J-curve?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 53-68, July.
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    4. Coudert, Virginie & Couharde, Cecile, 2007. "Real equilibrium exchange rate in China is the renminbi undervalued?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 568-594, August.
    5. Virginie Coudert & C├ęcile Couharde, 2005. "Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate in China," Working Papers 2005-01, CEPII research center.
    6. Chang, Gene Hsin & Shao, Qin, 2004. "How much is the Chinese currency undervalued? A quantitative estimation," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 366-371.
    7. Brada, Josef C & Kutan, Ali M & Zhou, Su, 1993. "China's Exchange Rate and the Balance of Trade," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 229-242.
    8. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1986. "Determinants of international trade flows : The Case of Developing Countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 107-123.
    9. Fung, K. C. & Lau, Lawrence J., 2001. "New Estimates of the United States-China BilateralTrade Balances," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 102-130, March.
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