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Investment and Share Prices: Fundamental versus Speculative Components

Author

Listed:
  • Christopher B. Branston
  • Nicolaas Groenewold

    () (UWA Business School, The University of Western Australia)

Abstract

This paper uses quarterly US data from 1953(6) to 2000(6) to investigate the effects of share-price changes on investment. We focus on the distinction between speculative and fundamental components of share-price movements and we contribute to the literature by evaluating four alternative methods of decomposing share-price movements into these two components. The four methods are: (1)a decomposition based on regressing share-returns on a set of variables designed to capture fundamentals; (2)the use of the price-earnings ratio; (3)the use of the dividend yield and (4)a structural VAR model based on the dividend-discount equation. We find that, no matter what the method of decomposition is, shocks to both fundamental and speculative components have positive effects on investment and that, in contrast to the earlier literature, the effect of the speculative shock is at least as large as that of a shock to fundamentals.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher B. Branston & Nicolaas Groenewold, 2003. "Investment and Share Prices: Fundamental versus Speculative Components," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 03-18, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:uwa:wpaper:03-18
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    File URL: http://ecompapers.biz.uwa.edu.au/paper/PDF%20of%20Discussion%20Papers/2003/03_18_Groewold3.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gilchrist, Simon & Leahy, John V., 2002. "Monetary policy and asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 75-97, January.
    2. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    3. Chirinko, Robert S. & Schaller, Huntley, 1996. "Bubbles, fundamentals, and investment: A multiple equation testing strategy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 47-76, August.
    4. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
    5. Martha Starr-McCluer, 2002. "Stock Market Wealth and Consumer Spending," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(1), pages 69-79, January.
    6. Chung, Heetaik & Lee, Bong-Soo, 1998. "Fundamental and nonfundamental components in stock prices of Pacific-Rim countries," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 6(3-4), pages 321-346, August.
    7. Cochrane, John H, 1991. " Production-Based Asset Pricing and the Link between Stock Returns and Economic Fluctuations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 209-237, March.
    8. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    9. Oxley, Les & McAleer, Michael, 1993. " Econometric Issues in Macroeconomic Models with Generated Regressors," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 1-40.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    investment; stock prices; fundamentals;

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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