IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/unl/unlfep/wp673.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Demand elasticities in promotional pricing: A theory-based analysis of empirical challenges

Author

Listed:
  • Pedro M. Gardete
  • Tania Z. Silva

Abstract

This paper develops a continuous-time model of selling in which a firm optimally offers price promotions in a market with static but heterogeneous consumer preferences. While consumer preferences are fixed, price promotions induce dynamic sorting behavior, causing price sensitivity to evolve over time. This dynamic response can create challenges for empirical analyses. We use the promotion-cycles model to examine these challenges for both experimental and observational settings. For experimental approaches, we show that failing to align interventions with the market’s equilibrium timing of promotions can lead to elasticity estimates that diverge from those naturally observed in the market. For observational methods, we demonstrate that – in the absence of price endogeneity – using lagged prices as instruments may introduce a spurious instrumentation bias that may be mistakenly attributed to endogeneity. We provide empirical guidance and show that, in most cases, such biases can be anticipated by directly examining how sales evolve during promotional cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Pedro M. Gardete & Tania Z. Silva, 2025. "Demand elasticities in promotional pricing: A theory-based analysis of empirical challenges," Nova SBE Working Paper Series wp673, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:unl:unlfep:wp673
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://run.unl.pt/bitstream/10362/183344/1/WP673.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brian W. Gould, 2003. "An Empirical Assessment of Endogeneity Issues in Demand Analysis for Differentiated Products," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(3), pages 605-617.
    2. Andrés Elberg & Pedro M. Gardete & Rosario Macera & Carlos Noton, 2019. "Dynamic effects of price promotions: field evidence, consumer search, and supply-side implications," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 1-58, March.
    3. David R. Bell & James M. Lattin, 1998. "Shopping Behavior and Consumer Preference for Store Price Format: Why “Large Basket” Shoppers Prefer EDLP," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 17(1), pages 66-88.
    4. Peter M. Guadagni & John D. C. Little, 1983. "A Logit Model of Brand Choice Calibrated on Scanner Data," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 2(3), pages 203-238.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David R. Bell & Jeongwen Chiang & V. Padmanabhan, 1999. "The Decomposition of Promotional Response: An Empirical Generalization," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(4), pages 504-526.
    2. Dennis Fok & Richard Paap & Philip Hans Franses, 2014. "Incorporating Responsiveness to Marketing Efforts in Brand Choice Modeling," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 2(1), pages 1-25, February.
    3. Chen, Bo & Saghaian, Sayed, 2017. "Does Consumers’ Preference for Organic Foods Affect Their Store Format Choices?," 2017 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2017, Mobile, Alabama 252827, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    4. K. Sudhir, 2001. "Structural Analysis of Manufacturer Pricing in the Presence of a Strategic Retailer," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 20(3), pages 244-264, October.
    5. Guyt, Jonne & Gijsbrechts, Els, 2018. "On consumer choice patterns and the net impact of feature promotions," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 490-508.
    6. Dr. Timothy J. Richards, 2015. "A Shameless Pitch for Quantitative Marketing," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(4), pages 564-567, October.
    7. Nitin Mehta, 2007. "Investigating Consumers' Purchase Incidence and Brand Choice Decisions Across Multiple Product Categories: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(2), pages 196-217, 03-04.
    8. Yina Lu & Andrés Musalem & Marcelo Olivares & Ariel Schilkrut, 2013. "Measuring the Effect of Queues on Customer Purchases," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(8), pages 1743-1763, August.
    9. Vidya Mani & Douglas J. Thomas & Saurabh Bansal, 2022. "Estimating Substitution and Basket Effects in Retail Stores: Implications for Assortment Planning," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(7), pages 5002-5024, July.
    10. A. Gürhan Kök & Yi Xu, 2011. "Optimal and Competitive Assortments with Endogenous Pricing Under Hierarchical Consumer Choice Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(9), pages 1546-1563, February.
    11. Greg M. Allenby & Thomas S. Shively & Sha Yang & Mark J. Garratt, 2004. "A Choice Model for Packaged Goods: Dealing with Discrete Quantities and Quantity Discounts," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(1), pages 95-108, June.
    12. Bonnet, Céline & Richards, Timothy J., 2016. "Models of Consumer Demand for Differentiated Products," TSE Working Papers 16-741, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    13. Tripathi Sanjeev & Sinha, Piyush Kumar, 2008. "Choice of a Retail Store and Retail Store Format: A Hierarchical Logit Model," IIMA Working Papers WP2008-04-03, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    14. Peter J. Danaher & Michael S. Smith, 2011. "Modeling Multivariate Distributions Using Copulas: Applications in Marketing," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(1), pages 4-21, 01-02.
    15. Hyoung-Goo Kang & Hailey Hayeon Joo & Janghee Cho, 2014. "Brand-size complementarity in the choice of retail stores," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(6), pages 413-416, April.
    16. Venkatesh Shankar & Pablo Azar & Matthew Fuller, 2008. "—: A Multicategory Brand Equity Model and Its Application at Allstate," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(4), pages 567-584, 07-08.
    17. Noah Gans & George Knox & Rachel Croson, 2007. "Simple Models of Discrete Choice and Their Performance in Bandit Experiments," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 9(4), pages 383-408, December.
    18. Chen Zhou & Shrihari Sridhar & Rafael Becerril-Arreola & Tony Haitao Cui & Yan Dong, 2019. "Promotions as competitive reactions to recalls and their consequences," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 702-722, July.
    19. Polo, Yolanda & Sese, F. Javier & Verhoef, Peter C., 2011. "The Effect of Pricing and Advertising on Customer Retention in a Liberalizing Market," Journal of Interactive Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 201-214.
    20. Skallerud, Kåre & Korneliussen, Tor & Olsen, Svein Ottar, 2009. "An examination of consumers’ cross-shopping behaviour," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 181-189.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:unl:unlfep:wp673. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Susana Lopes (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feunlpt.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.