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The Paradox of Thrift and Crowding-In of Private Investment in a Simple IS-LM Model

  • Deepankar Basu


    (University of Massachusetts Amherst)

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    This paper derives conditions for two key Keynesian propositions in a simple IS-LM model: (a) the paradox of thrift, and (b) the crowding-in of private investment expenditures by government expenditures. A linear speci cation of the model is then presented as a special case that can be used for empirical analysis. Using data for the US economy for the period 1959-2009, time series estimation of the linear model using instrumental variables regression shows that the paradox of thrift and crowding-in are real possibilities, especially in the sub-period, 1974-2009, that excludes the Golden Age of capitalism. JEL Categories: E12, E20.

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    Paper provided by University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics in its series UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers with number 2009-14.

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    Date of creation: Nov 2009
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:ums:papers:2009-14
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    1. Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2005. "What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-039, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    2. Wendy Edelberg & Martin Eichenbaum & Jonas D.M. Fisher, 1998. "Understanding the effects of a shock to government purchases," Working Paper Series WP-98-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    3. Thomas I. Palley, 2002. "Endogenous Money: What it is and Why it Matters," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(2), pages 152-180, 05.
    4. Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2001. "The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Consumption and Employment: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 2760, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Subramanian S. Sriram, 2001. "A Survey of Recent Empirical Money Demand Studies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(3), pages 3.
    6. Youngsoo Bae & Robert M. de Jong, 2007. "Money demand function estimation by nonlinear cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(4), pages 767-793.
    7. Davide Furceri & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2009. "The Impact of Government Spending on the Private Sector: Crowding-out versus Crowding-in Effects"," NIPE Working Papers 6/2009, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    8. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 1999. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," NBER Working Papers 7269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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