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A Cliometric Reappraisal of the Impacts of Plague Outbreaks on Pre-Industrial France

Author

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  • Guillaume Morel
  • Magali Jaoul-Grammare

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of plague outbreaks on nominal wages, real wages, and prices in pre-industrial France. We employ a cliometric approach, relying on a database spanning multiple centuries, drawn from Ridolfi (2019). To analyze the impact of plague outbreaks, we apply an outlier detection methodology to detect atypical points that influence the evolution of our time series. We tackle the following question: over the period 1280–1789, did plague significantly influence the evolution of real wages, nominal wages, and prices, and, if so, what was the nature of this impact? We find that plague outbreaks had differentiated impacts across variables, occupations, and periods. Real and nominal wages responded differently depending on contextual factors, while prices were influenced by both plagues and famines.

Suggested Citation

  • Guillaume Morel & Magali Jaoul-Grammare, 2026. "A Cliometric Reappraisal of the Impacts of Plague Outbreaks on Pre-Industrial France," Working Papers of BETA 2026-06, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    • Handle: RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2026-06
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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • N33 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: Pre-1913

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