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Models of currency crises with self-fulfilling features: A comment

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  • Meixing Dai

Abstract

Much attention has been paid to models of currency crisis with self-fulfilling features and the concept of multiple equilibria developed in the 1990s. They aim at explaining currency crisis without apparent fundamental disequilibrium. They are also useful to render account for currency crisis unpredictability. This paper re-examines an illustrative model of Obstfeld (1996), in which high unemployment may cause an exchange-rate crisis with selffulfilling features. By completing the algebraic demonstration, this paper shows that there are less equilibria than conjectured.

Suggested Citation

  • Meixing Dai, 2009. "Models of currency crises with self-fulfilling features: A comment," Working Papers of BETA 2009-14, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  • Handle: RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2009-14
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    File URL: http://www.beta-umr7522.fr/productions/publications/2009/2009-14.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August.
    2. Meixing Dai, 2012. "External Constraint and Financial Crises with Balance Sheet Effects," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(4), pages 567-585, March.
    3. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of currency crises with self-fulfilling features," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1037-1047, April.
    4. Paul Krugman, 1999. "Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(4), pages 459-472, November.
    5. Sachs, Jeffrey & Tornell, Aaron & Velasco, Andres, 1996. "The Mexican peso crisis: Sudden death or death foretold?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 265-283, November.
    6. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Camille Cornand, 2006. "The pros and cons of higher transparency: the case of speculative attacks," Recherches économiques de Louvain, De Boeck Université, vol. 72(3), pages 215-246.
    7. Meixing Dai, 2009. "Public debt and currency crisis: how central bank opacity can make things bad?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(1), pages 190-198.
    8. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1997. "Destabilizing effects of exchange-rate escape clauses," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1-2), pages 61-77, August.
    9. Reuven Glick & Ramon Moreno & Mark M. Spiegel, 2001. "Financial crises in emerging markets," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar.23.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Self-fulfilling currency crisis; Fixed exchange rate; Multiple equilibria.;

    JEL classification:

    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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