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SNUS-2.5, a Multimoment Analysis of Road Demand, Accidents and their Severity in Germany, 1968 – 1989

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  • Ulrich Blum
  • Marc Gaudry

Abstract

The present article presents an improved and refined version of the SNUS-1 model (GAUDRY and BLUM 1993) documented only in French. The greatest difficulty faced in the development of the model did not have to do with structure – the multilevel structure is straightforward – but with the specification of the employment activity variable, due to the specifics of the German economy,and with the proper formulation of the role of vehicle stocks in the road demand models. Moreover,we consider the following aspects to be special in the context of an analysis of Germany: • there exist no general speed limits on motorways, i.e. about 70% allow unlimited speed today,and in the Sixties, when our analysis starts, this share was even higher; • the country is large compared with other regions were the DRAG-methodology is employed, and it possesses high car ownership levels and an important car industry that sees the German infrastructure as an appropriate testing ground; • Germany is poly-central, its infrastructure resembles a grid, whereas France’s is almost a huband-spoke system, as compared for instance to Norway’s line; • unification is not yet included because of lagging data availability and, thus, problems to compensate for the structural break in data series.

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  • Ulrich Blum & Marc Gaudry, 2000. "SNUS-2.5, a Multimoment Analysis of Road Demand, Accidents and their Severity in Germany, 1968 – 1989," Working Papers of BETA 2000-11, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  • Handle: RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2000-11
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    File URL: http://www.beta-umr7522.fr/productions/publications/2000/2000-11.pdf
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    1. Scott, Robert C & Horvath, Philip A, 1980. " On the Direction of Preference for Moments of Higher Order Than the Variance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(4), pages 915-919, September.
    2. Gaudry, Marc J. I. & Dagenais, Marcel G., 1979. "Heteroscedasticity and the use of Box-Cox transformations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 225-229.
    3. Blum, U.C.H. & Foos, G. & Gaudry, M.J.I., 1986. "Aggregate Time Series Gasoline Demand Models. Review of the Literature and New Evidence for West Germany," Cahiers de recherche 8617, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    4. Kraus, Alan & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1976. "Skewness Preference and the Valuation of Risk Assets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(4), pages 1085-1100, September.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Estelle Dhont-Peltrault & Etienne Pfister, 2007. "R&D cooperation versus R&D subcontracting: empirical evidence from French survey data," Working Papers of BETA 2007-17, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    3. Gisèle Umbhauer, 2007. "De l’amiante au chrysotile, un glissement stratégique dans la désinformation," Working Papers of BETA 2007-15, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    4. Jalal EL OUARDIGHI & Rabija SOMUN-KAPETANOVIC, 2006. "Convergence des contributions aux inégalités de richesse dans le développement des pays européens," Working Papers of BETA 2006-19, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    5. Meixing DAI, 2007. "A two-pillar strategy to keep inflation expectations at bay: A basic theoretical framework," Working Papers of BETA 2007-20, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    6. Meixing DAI & Moïse SIDIROPOULOS & Eleftherios SPYROMITROS, 2007. "La transparence de la politique monétaire et la dynamique des marchés financiers," Working Papers of BETA 2007-19, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    7. Giovanni Dosi & Patrick Llerena & Mauro Sylos Labini, 2005. "Science-Technology-Industry Links and the ”European Paradox”: Some Notes on the Dynamics of Scientific and Technological Research in Europe," LEM Papers Series 2005/02, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    8. Stéphane Betrand & Kene Boun My & Alban Verchère, 2005. "Faire émerger la coopération internationale : une approche expérimentale comparée du bilatéralisme et du multilatéralisme," Working Papers of BETA 2005-13, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    9. Nicolas Carayol & Pascale Roux, 2006. "A strategic model of complex networks formation," Working Papers of BETA 2006-02, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    10. Tapas K. Mishra, 2006. "A Further Look into the Demography-based GDP Forecasting Method," Working Papers of BETA 2006-17, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    11. Li Qin & Eleftherios Spyromitros & Moïse Sidiropoulos, 2007. "Monetary Policy with Uncertain Central Bank Preferences for Robustness," Working Papers of BETA 2007-23, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    12. Rachel Levy & Paul Muller, 2006. "Do academic laboratories correspond to scientific communities? Evidence from a large European university," Working Papers of BETA 2006-15, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    13. Sofia Pessoa e Costa & Stéphane Robin, 2007. "The Impact Of Training Programmes On Wages In France: An Evaluation Of The “Qualifying Contract” Using Propensity Scores," Working Papers of BETA 2007-18, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.

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