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Chômage et croissance en France et aux Etats-Unis: une analyse de longue période

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  • Lucrezia Reichlin
  • Catherine Guillemineau

Abstract

[eng] This paper analyses the causes of unemployment, in the long and in the short-run, in France and the United-States. Our empirical strategy consists of testing for short-run causality and for cointegration. The cointegration analysis seeks to establish whether there exists a common long-run path for each pair of series ; the short- run causality analysis seeks to establish whether one série contains information to predict changes in another série. Many macroeconomic time series can be characterized by persistence, i.e. by hysteresis, which implies that the effects of a shock on economic aggregates are long lasting, in that even small changes lead to large movements in the long term path. The results show that there exists no stable relationship between unemployment and real wages or labour costs, nor between unemployment and demographic aggregates or demand for goods. No causality was found for these pairs of series. On the other hand, we can identify short-term and long-term causality for unemployment rates and real long-run interest rates, both in France and the United States. These results are quite surprising and lead us to question most standard explanations of unemployment. [fre] Cet article présente une étude empirique exploratoire sur les déterminants du chômage, en courte comme en longue période, en France et aux Etats-Unis. Les méthodes statistiques utilisées sont celles de la cointégration, qui permet de déterminer si deux variables évoluent conjointement dans le temps, et de la causalité, qui détermine si une série chronologique contient les informations nécessaires à la prédiction de l'évolution d'une autre. La plupart des séries utilisées sont caractérisées par la propriété de persistance, ou encore par un phénomène d'hystérésis, qui implique que leur évolution n'est pas réversible. En d'autres termes, des chocs, même transitoires, laissent des traces permanentes sur l'évolution économique. Les résultats montrent qu'il n'existe pas de relations sys
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Suggested Citation

  • Lucrezia Reichlin & Catherine Guillemineau, 1989. "Chômage et croissance en France et aux Etats-Unis: une analyse de longue période," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10215, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  • Handle: RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/10215
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    2. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/6256 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Fitoussi, Jean-Paul & Le Cacheux, Jacques, 1988. "On Macroeconomic Implications of Price Setting in the Open Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 335-340, May.
    4. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
    5. Lucrezia Reichlin, 1989. "Fluctuations et croissance en Europe : une analyse empirique," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 26(1), pages 71-93.
    6. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen, 1986. "Unemployment in Britain," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 53(210(S)), pages 121-169, Supplemen.
    7. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexandre Mathis & Lucrezia Reichlin, 1992. "Les effets du taux d'intérêt réel sur l'activité en France," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 41(1), pages 195-216.
    2. Jean-Paul Fitoussi & Jacques Le Cacheux, 1989. "Une théorie des années quatre-vingt," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 29(1), pages 117-160.

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