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Convergence nominale et réelle parmi les pays de la CE et de l'AELE

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  • Lucrezia Reichlin
  • Rahim Loufir

Abstract

[fre] Cet article se propose d'estimer la vitesse de convergence de certains indicateurs macroéconomiques, nominaux et réels, des pays de la Communauté européenne (CE) et de l'Association économique de libre échange (AELE) vers les valeurs observées en Allemagne, pendant les vingt dernières années. La méthodologie employée permet d'évaluer l'ampleur et la durée des changements structurels associés à des modifications institutionnelles, telles que la création du Système monétaire européen (SME). Les résultats empiriques indiquent que le SME a favorisé la convergence des taux d'inflation des pays membres mais pas celle des taux d'intérêt nominaux. En outre, les pays qui ont convergé vers le taux d'inflation allemand ont généralement divergé en termes de niveau du PIB réel par tête. Cependant, si les autres pays de la CE ne participant pas au SME, à l'exception du Royaume-Uni, ont également connu une évolution réelle comparable, ils n'ont pas vu leurs taux d'inflation se rapprocher du taux d'inflation allemand. Le seul groupe qui a, dans les années quatre-vingt, convergé vers la performance réelle allemande, sans pour autant converger en matière d'inflation, est celui des pays de l'AELE. [eng] Nominal and Real Convergence in EC and EFTA countries . This paper estimates the speed of convergence towards German values of nominal and real macroeconomic indicators of EC and EFTA countries for the last twenty years (for real GDP per capita we consider the period 1950- 1988). We use a time-varying parameters method proposed by Haldane and Hall (1 991 ) which allows us to evaluate changes in the speed of convergence in relation to institutional changes such as the creation of the European Monetary System (EMS). Empirical results indicate that the EMS has favoured price convergence of participating countries, but not convergence of nominal interest rates. Moreover, countries which have converged towards the German inflation rate, have generally diverged from its level of real G
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  • Lucrezia Reichlin & Rahim Loufir, 1993. "Convergence nominale et réelle parmi les pays de la CE et de l'AELE," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10207, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    • Handle: RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/10207
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cogley, Timothy, 1990. "International Evidence on the Size of the Random Walk in Output," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(3), pages 501-518, June.
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    5. Andrew B. Bernard & Steven N. Durlauf, 1991. "Convergence of International Output Movements," NBER Working Papers 3717, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Hall, S G & Robertson, D & Wickens, M R, 1992. "Measuring Convergence of the EC Economies," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 60(0), pages 99-111, Supplemen.
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    Cited by:

    1. Camarero, Mariam, & Flôres, R. & C. Tamarit, 2002. "Time series evidence of international output convergence in Mercosur," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 87, Society for Computational Economics.
    2. Jean-Marie Monnier, 2000. "Harmonisation des fiscalités et structures fiscales européennes entre 1988 et 1996," Post-Print hal-00677603, HAL.
    3. Pierre-Yves Hénin & Yannick Le Pen, 1995. "Les épisodes de la convergence européenne," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 46(3), pages 667-677.
    4. Beine, Michel & Hecq, Alain, 1998. "Codependence and Convergence in the EC Economies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 403-426, August.
    5. Jean-Marie Monnier, 2000. "Harmonisation des fiscalités et structures fiscales européennes entre 1988 et 1996," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00677603, HAL.
    6. Lambert N'galadjo Bamba, 2004. "Analyse du Processus de Convergence Dans la Zone UEMOA," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2004-18, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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