IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/prs/rvofce/ofce_0751-6614_1993_num_43_1_1299.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Convergences nominale et réelle parmi les pays de la CE et de l'AELE

Author

Listed:
  • Rahim Loufir
  • Lucrezia Reichlin

Abstract

[fre] Cet article se propose d'estimer la vitesse de convergence de certains indicateurs macroéconomiques, nominaux et réels, des pays de la Communauté européenne (CE) et de l'Association économique de libre échange (AELE) vers les valeurs observées en Allemagne, pendant les vingt dernières années. La méthodologie employée permet d'évaluer l'ampleur et la durée des changements structurels associés à des modifications institutionnelles, telles que la création du Système monétaire européen (SME). Les résultats empiriques indiquent que le SME a favorisé la convergence des taux d'inflation des pays membres mais pas celle des taux d'intérêt nominaux. En outre, les pays qui ont convergé vers le taux d'inflation allemand ont généralement divergé en termes de niveau du PIB réel par tête. Cependant, si les autres pays de la CE ne participant pas au SME, à l'exception du Royaume-Uni, ont également connu une évolution réelle comparable, ils n'ont pas vu leurs taux d'inflation se rapprocher du taux d'inflation allemand. Le seul groupe qui a, dans les années quatre-vingt, convergé vers la performance réelle allemande, sans pour autant converger en matière d'inflation, est celui des pays de l'AELE. [eng] Nominal and Real Convergence in EC and EFTA countries . This paper estimates the speed of convergence towards German values of nominal and real macroeconomic indicators of EC and EFTA countries for the last twenty years (for real GDP per capita we consider the period 1950- 1988). We use a time-varying parameters method proposed by Haldane and Hall (1 991 ) which allows us to evaluate changes in the speed of convergence in relation to institutional changes such as the creation of the European Monetary System (EMS). Empirical results indicate that the EMS has favoured price convergence of participating countries, but not convergence of nominal interest rates. Moreover, countries which have converged towards the German inflation rate, have generally diverged from its level of real GDP per capita. However, with the exception of the UK, so have those EC countries which have not participated in the EMS and have not converged to the German inflation rate. The only group of countries that, in the eighties, has converged towards the German real performance is the group of countries within EFTA, which, on the other hand, has not converged with respect to the inflation rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Rahim Loufir & Lucrezia Reichlin, 1993. "Convergences nominale et réelle parmi les pays de la CE et de l'AELE," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 43(1), pages 69-92.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_1993_num_43_1_1299
    DOI: 10.3406/ofce.1993.1299
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.1993.1299
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.3406/ofce.1993.1299
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.persee.fr/doc/ofce_0751-6614_1993_num_43_1_1299
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.3406/ofce.1993.1299?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1987. "Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 102(4), pages 857-880.
    2. Hakkio, Craig S. & Rush, Mark, 1989. "Market efficiency and cointegration: an application to the sterling and deutschemark exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 75-88, March.
    3. Lucrezia Reichlin, 1989. "Fluctuations et croissance en Europe : une analyse empirique," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 26(1), pages 71-93.
    4. Andrew B. Bernard & Steven N. Durlauf, 1991. "Convergence of International Output Movements," NBER Working Papers 3717, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Cogley, Timothy, 1990. "International Evidence on the Size of the Random Walk in Output," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(3), pages 501-518, June.
    6. Hall, S G & Robertson, D & Wickens, M R, 1992. "Measuring Convergence of the EC Economies," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 60(0), pages 99-111, Supplemen.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Camarero, Mariam, & Flôres, R. & C. Tamarit, 2002. "Time series evidence of international output convergence in Mercosur," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 87, Society for Computational Economics.
    2. Beine, Michel & Hecq, Alain, 1998. "Codependence and Convergence in the EC Economies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 403-426, August.
    3. Jean-Marie Monnier, 2000. "Harmonisation des fiscalités et structures fiscales européennes entre 1988 et 1996," Post-Print hal-00677603, HAL.
    4. Jean-Marie Monnier, 2000. "Harmonisation des fiscalités et structures fiscales européennes entre 1988 et 1996," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00677603, HAL.
    5. Pierre-Yves Hénin & Yannick Le Pen, 1995. "Les épisodes de la convergence européenne," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 46(3), pages 667-677.
    6. Lambert N'galadjo Bamba, 2004. "Analyse du Processus de Convergence Dans la Zone UEMOA," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2004-18, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Greasley, David & Oxley, Les, 1998. "Comparing British and American Economic and Industrial Performance 1860-1993: A Time Series Perspective," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 171-195, April.
    2. van de Gucht, Linda M. & Dekimpe, Marnik G. & Kwok, Chuck C. Y., 1996. "Persistence in foreign exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 191-220, April.
    3. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie David, 1996. "Deterministic, Stochastic, and Segmented Trends in Aggregate Output: A Cross-Country Analysis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(1), pages 134-162, January.
    4. Dezhbakhsh, Hashem & Levy, Daniel, 2022. "Interpolation and shock persistence of prewar U.S. macroeconomic time series: A reconsideration," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 213.
    5. Giorgio Canarella & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller & Tolga Omay, 2019. "Does U.K.’s Real GDP have a Unit Root? Evidence from a Multi-Century Perspective," Working Papers 201926, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    6. Juncal Cuñado & L.A. Gil-Alana & F. Pérez de Gracia, 2007. "Real convergence in some emerging countries: a fractionally integrated approach," Recherches économiques de Louvain, De Boeck Université, vol. 73(3), pages 293-310.
    7. Andrew B. Bernard & Steven N. Durlauf, 1991. "Convergence of International Output Movements," NBER Working Papers 3717, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Juncal Cunado & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Fernando Pérez de Gracia, 2006. "Additional Empirical Evidence on Real Convergence: A Fractionally Integrated Approach," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 142(1), pages 67-91, April.
    9. Daniel, Betty C., 1997. "International interdependence of national growth rates: A structural trends anakysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 73-96, September.
    10. Gollier, Christian, 2003. "Transitory Shocks to GNP and the Consumption-Based Term Structure of Interest Rates," IDEI Working Papers 175, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    11. Laurence Boone, 1997. "Symmetry and Asymmetry of Supply and Demand Shocks in the European Union," Working Papers 1997-03, CEPII research center.
    12. Roel van Elk & Marc van der Steeg & Dinand Webbink, 2013. "The effects of a special program for multi-problem school dropouts on educational enrolment, employment and criminal behaviour; Evidence from a field experiment," CPB Discussion Paper 241.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    13. Aggarwal, Raj & Simmons, Walter, 2008. "Common stocastic trends among Caribbean currencies: Evidence from Guyana, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 277-289.
    14. John H. Cochrane, 1990. "Univariate vs. Multivariate Forecasts of GNP Growth and Stock Returns: Evidence and Implications for the Persistence of Shocks, Detrending Methods," NBER Working Papers 3427, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Hamdad, Malika & Harchaoui, Tarek M., 2004. "La persistance des chocs au Canada, 1870-1996," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 80(2), pages 421-437, Juin-Sept.
    16. Leo Butler, 1996. "The Bank of Canada's New Quarterly Porjection Model Part 4 : A Semi- Structural Method to Estimate Potential Output : Combining Economic Theory with a Time-Series Filter," Technical Reports 77, Bank of Canada.
    17. Geetha Mayadunne & Merran Evans & Brett Inder, 1995. "An Empirical Investigation of Shock Persistence in Economic Time Series," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 71(2), pages 145-156, June.
    18. Silvestro Di Sanzo, 2011. "Output Fluctuations Persistence: Do Cyclical Shocks Matter?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(1), pages 28-52, January.
    19. Aviral Tiwari & Amrit Chaudhari & K. Suresh, 2012. "Are Asian Per Capita GDP Stationary? Evidence from First and Second Generation Panel Unit Root Tests," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 19(1), pages 3-11, September.
    20. K. Suresh & Aviral Tiwari, 2013. "Are Shocks to Real Output Permanent or Transitory? Evidence from a Panel of “Asean” Per Capita GDP Data," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 20(2), pages 149-157, October.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_1993_num_43_1_1299. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Equipe PERSEE (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.persee.fr/collection/ofce .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.