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Convergences nominale et réelle parmi les pays de la CE et de l'AELE

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  • Rahim Loufir
  • Lucrezia Reichlin

Abstract

[fre] Cet article se propose d'estimer la vitesse de convergence de certains indicateurs macroéconomiques, nominaux et réels, des pays de la Communauté européenne (CE) et de l'Association économique de libre échange (AELE) vers les valeurs observées en Allemagne, pendant les vingt dernières années. La méthodologie employée permet d'évaluer l'ampleur et la durée des changements structurels associés à des modifications institutionnelles, telles que la création du Système monétaire européen (SME). Les résultats empiriques indiquent que le SME a favorisé la convergence des taux d'inflation des pays membres mais pas celle des taux d'intérêt nominaux. En outre, les pays qui ont convergé vers le taux d'inflation allemand ont généralement divergé en termes de niveau du PIB réel par tête. Cependant, si les autres pays de la CE ne participant pas au SME, à l'exception du Royaume-Uni, ont également connu une évolution réelle comparable, ils n'ont pas vu leurs taux d'inflation se rapprocher du taux d'inflation allemand. Le seul groupe qui a, dans les années quatre-vingt, convergé vers la performance réelle allemande, sans pour autant converger en matière d'inflation, est celui des pays de l'AELE. [eng] Nominal and Real Convergence in EC and EFTA countries . This paper estimates the speed of convergence towards German values of nominal and real macroeconomic indicators of EC and EFTA countries for the last twenty years (for real GDP per capita we consider the period 1950- 1988). We use a time-varying parameters method proposed by Haldane and Hall (1 991 ) which allows us to evaluate changes in the speed of convergence in relation to institutional changes such as the creation of the European Monetary System (EMS). Empirical results indicate that the EMS has favoured price convergence of participating countries, but not convergence of nominal interest rates. Moreover, countries which have converged towards the German inflation rate, have generally diverged from its level of real GDP per capita. However, with the exception of the UK, so have those EC countries which have not participated in the EMS and have not converged to the German inflation rate. The only group of countries that, in the eighties, has converged towards the German real performance is the group of countries within EFTA, which, on the other hand, has not converged with respect to the inflation rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Rahim Loufir & Lucrezia Reichlin, 1993. "Convergences nominale et réelle parmi les pays de la CE et de l'AELE," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 43(1), pages 69-92.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_1993_num_43_1_1299
    DOI: 10.3406/ofce.1993.1299
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.1993.1299
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    6. Hall, S G & Robertson, D & Wickens, M R, 1992. "Measuring Convergence of the EC Economies," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 60(0), pages 99-111, Supplemen.
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    Cited by:

    1. Camarero, Mariam, & Flôres, R. & C. Tamarit, 2002. "Time series evidence of international output convergence in Mercosur," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 87, Society for Computational Economics.
    2. Beine, Michel & Hecq, Alain, 1998. "Codependence and Convergence in the EC Economies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 403-426, August.
    3. Jean-Marie Monnier, 2000. "Harmonisation des fiscalités et structures fiscales européennes entre 1988 et 1996," Post-Print hal-00677603, HAL.
    4. Jean-Marie Monnier, 2000. "Harmonisation des fiscalités et structures fiscales européennes entre 1988 et 1996," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00677603, HAL.
    5. Pierre-Yves Hénin & Yannick Le Pen, 1995. "Les épisodes de la convergence européenne," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 46(3), pages 667-677.
    6. Lambert N'galadjo Bamba, 2004. "Analyse du Processus de Convergence Dans la Zone UEMOA," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2004-18, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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