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The Effects of Credit Risk on Dynamic Portfolio Management: A New Computational Approach

Author

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  • Kwamie Dunbar

    (University of Connecticut and Sacred Heart University)

Abstract

The study investigates the role of credit risk in a continuous time stochastic asset allocation model, since the traditional dynamic framework does not provide credit risk flexibility. The general model of the study extends the traditional dynamic efficiency framework by explicitly deriving the optimal value function for the infinite horizon stochastic control problem via a weighted volatility measure of market and credit risk. The model's optimal strategy was then compared to that obtained from a benchmark Markowitz-type dynamic optimization framework to determine which specification adequately reflects the optimal terminal investment returns and strategy under credit and market risks. The paper shows that an investor's optimal terminal return is lower than typically indicated under the traditional mean-variance framework during periods of elevated credit risk. Hence I conclude that, while the traditional dynamic mean-variance approach may indicate the ideal, in the presence of credit-risk it does not accurately reflect the observed optimal returns, terminal wealth and portfolio selection strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Kwamie Dunbar, 2009. "The Effects of Credit Risk on Dynamic Portfolio Management: A New Computational Approach," Working papers 2009-03, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2009.
  • Handle: RePEc:uct:uconnp:2009-03
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kwamie Dunbar, 2008. "US corporate default swap valuation: the market liquidity hypothesis and autonomous credit risk," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 321-334.
    2. Paul A. Samuelson, 2011. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection by Dynamic Stochastic Programming," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: THE KELLY CAPITAL GROWTH INVESTMENT CRITERION THEORY and PRACTICE, chapter 31, pages 465-472 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Hakansson, Nils H, 1970. "Optimal Investment and Consumption Strategies Under Risk for a Class of Utility Functions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 38(5), pages 587-607, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Kwamie Dunbar, 2009. "Solving the Non-Linear Dynamic Asset Allocation Problem: Effects of Arbitrary Stochastic Processes and Unsystematic Risk on the Super Efficient Portfolio Space," Working papers 2009-04, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic Strategies; Credit Risk; Mean-Variance Analysis; Optimal Portfolio Selection; Viscosity Solution; Credit Default Swaps; Default Risk; Dynamic Control;

    JEL classification:

    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General

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