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Optimal hedging under departures from the cost-of-carry valuation: evidence from the Spanish stock index futures market



We provide an analytical discussion of the optimal hedge ratio under discrepancies between the futures market price and its theoretical valuation according to the cost-of-carry model. Assuming a geometric Brownian motion for spot prices, we model mispricing as a speci…c noise component in the dynamics of futures market prices. Empirical evidence on the model is provided for the Spanish stock index futures. Ex-ante simulations with actual data reveal that hedge ratios that take into account the estimated, time-varying, correlation between the common and specific disturbances, lead to using a lower number of futures contracts than under a systematic unit ratio, without generally losing hedging e¤ectiveness, while reducing transaction costs and capital requirements. Besides, the reduction in the number of contracts can be substantial over some periods. Finally, a meanvariance expected utility function suggests that the economic benefits from an optimal hedge are substantial.

Suggested Citation

  • Alfonso Novales & J.A. Lafuente, 2002. "Optimal hedging under departures from the cost-of-carry valuation: evidence from the Spanish stock index futures market," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 0223, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
  • Handle: RePEc:ucm:doicae:0223

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Garman, Mark B & Klass, Michael J, 1980. "On the Estimation of Security Price Volatilities from Historical Data," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 67-78, January.
    2. Kroner, Kenneth F. & Sultan, Jahangir, 1993. "Time-Varying Distributions and Dynamic Hedging with Foreign Currency Futures," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(04), pages 535-551, December.
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    5. Tae H. Park & Lorne N. Switzer, 1995. "Bivariate GARCH estimation of the optimal hedge ratios for stock index futures: A note," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 61-67, February.
    6. Seung‐Ryong Yang & B. Wade Brorsen, 1993. "Nonlinear dynamics of daily futures prices: Conditional heteroskedasticity or chaos?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(2), pages 175-191, April.
    7. M. D. Racine & Lucy F. Ackert, 2000. "Time-Varying Volatility In Canadian And U.S. Stock Index And Index Futures Markets: A Multivariate Analysis," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 23(2), pages 129-143, June.
    8. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 393-395, October.
    9. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    10. Stoll, Hans R. & Whaley, Robert E., 1990. "The Dynamics of Stock Index and Stock Index Futures Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(04), pages 441-468, December.
    11. A. Craig MacKinlay, Krishna Ramaswamy, 1988. "Index-Futures Arbitrage and the Behavior of Stock Index Futures Prices," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(2), pages 137-158.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lee, Hsiang-Tai & Tsang, Wei-Lun, 2011. "Cross hedging single stock with American Depositary Receipt and stock index futures," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 146-157, September.
    2. Lin, Xiaoqiang & Chen, Qiang & Tang, Zhenpeng, 2014. "Dynamic hedging strategy in incomplete market: Evidence from Shanghai fuel oil futures market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 81-90.
    3. Sharma, Susan Sunila & Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Zheng, Xinwei, 2014. "An analysis of firm and market volatility," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 205-220.
    4. Alizadeh, Amir H. & Huang, Chih-Yueh & van Dellen, Stefan, 2015. "A regime switching approach for hedging tanker shipping freight rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 44-59.
    5. Shackleton, Mark B. & Voukelatos, Nikolaos, 2013. "Hedging efficiency in the Greek options market before and after the financial crisis of 2008," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-18.
    6. Amir H. Alizadeh & Nikos Nomikos, 2011. "An Investigation into the Effect of Risk Management on the Profitability of Shipping Investment and Operations," Chapters,in: International Handbook of Maritime Economics, chapter 7 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Suo, Yuan-Yuan & Wang, Dong-Hua & Li, Sai-Ping, 2015. "Risk estimation of CSI 300 index spot and futures in China from a new perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 344-353.
    8. Christos Floros & Dimitrios Vougas, 2004. "Hedge ratios in Greek stock index futures market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(15), pages 1125-1136.
    9. repec:spr:eurasi:v:7:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s40821-016-0056-2 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Patrick McGlenchy & Paul Kofman, 2004. "Structurally Sound Dynamic Index Futures Hedging," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 80, Econometric Society.
    11. Lee, Hsiang-Tai, 2010. "Regime switching correlation hedging," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2728-2741, November.

    More about this item


    Optimal hedging; Futures contract; Stock Index; GARCH models; Mispricing.;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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