Regression Model for Proportions with Probability Masses at Zero and One
In many settings, the variable of interest is a proportion with high concentration of data at the boundaries. This paper proposes a regression model for a fractional variable with nontrivial probability masses at the extremes. In particular, the dependent variable is assumed to be a mixed random variable, obtained as the mixture of a Bernoulli and a beta random variables. The extreme values of zero and one are modelled by a logistic regression model. The values belonging to the interval (0,1) are assumed beta distributed and their mean and dispersion are jointly modelled by using two link functions. The regression model here proposed accommodates skewness and heteroscedastic errors. Finally, an application to loan recovery process of Italian banks is also provided.
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- Bastos, João A., 2010.
"Forecasting bank loans loss-given-default,"
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- Joao A. Bastos, 2009. "Forecasting bank loans loss-given-default," CEMAPRE Working Papers 0901, Centre for Applied Mathematics and Economics (CEMAPRE), School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon.
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- Grunert, Jens & Weber, Martin, 2009. "Recovery rates of commercial lending: Empirical evidence for German companies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 505-513, March.
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- Cook, Douglas O. & Kieschnick, Robert & McCullough, B.D., 2008. "Regression analysis of proportions in finance with self selection," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 860-867, December.
- Papke, Leslie E & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1996. "Econometric Methods for Fractional Response Variables with an Application to 401(K) Plan Participation Rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 619-632, Nov.-Dec..
- Leslie E. Papke & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 1993. "Econometric Methods for Fractional Response Variables with an Application to 401(k) Plan Participation Rates," NBER Technical Working Papers 0147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Julie Agnew & Pierluigi Balduzzi & Annika Sundén, 2003. "Portfolio Choice and Trading in a Large 401(k) Plan," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 193-215, March.
- Dermine, J. & de Carvalho, C. Neto, 2006. "Bank loan losses-given-default: A case study," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1219-1243, April. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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