IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ubc/clssrn/clsrn_admin-2013-20.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Impacts of Cyclical Downturns on the Third Pillar of the RIS and Policy Responses

Author

Listed:
  • Davies, James B.
  • Yu, Xiaoyu

Abstract

This paper explores impacts of recessions on private pensions and retirement savings in Canada. We estimate that the 2008-09 recession saw declines in average family wealth and retirement assets of 11% and 14% respectively. Average wealth recovered by the end of 2010, but retirement assets remained 2% lower than before the recession. Losses were higher for those more exposed to the stock market, such as older workers and retirees with DC pension plans or large RRSPs. Without the recovery the recession would have reduced expected retirement income of future retirees by averages of 3.4% and 11.0% for DB and DC plans respectively. In order to analyze unemployment and early retirement effects, the paper examines a hypothetical economy with a recession once a decade. For DB plans, unemployment caused by recessions can reduce pensions by up to 25% if it strikes late and reduces final average pay. Early retirement may reduce DB pensions up to 50%. Overall, effects tend to be smaller with DC plans, but early career unemployment or early retirement can have substantial impacts. Enhancing CPP/QPP is compared with wide adoption of Pooled RPPs (PRPPs). Expected retirement income is higher with PRPPs but so is risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Davies, James B. & Yu, Xiaoyu, 2013. "Impacts of Cyclical Downturns on the Third Pillar of the RIS and Policy Responses," CLSSRN working papers clsrn_admin-2013-20, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 29 Apr 2013.
    • Handle: RePEc:ubc:clssrn:clsrn_admin-2013-20
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.clsrn.econ.ubc.ca/workingpapers/CLSRN%20Working%20Paper%20no.%20113%20-%20Davies%20and%20Yu.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. William N. Goetzmann & Alok Kumar, 2008. "Equity Portfolio Diversification," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 12(3), pages 433-463.
    2. Summers, Lawrence H, 1981. "Capital Taxation and Accumulation in a Life Cycle Growth Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 533-544, September.
    3. Mark J. Kamstra & Robert J. Shiller, 2009. "The Case for Trills: Giving the People and Their Pension Funds a Stake in the Wealth of the Nation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1717, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    4. Michael Haliassos and Alexander Michaelides, 2001. "Calibration and Computation of Household Portfolio Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 194, Society for Computational Economics.
    5. Kevin Milligan, 2005. "Life‐cycle asset accumulation and allocation in Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(3), pages 1057-1106, August.
    6. Zvi Bodie & Alan J. Marcus & Robert C. Merton, 1988. "Defined Benefit versus Defined Contribution Pension Plans: What are the Real Trade-offs?," NBER Chapters, in: Pensions in the U.S. Economy, pages 139-162, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Alan L. Gustman & Thomas L. Steinmeier & Nahid Tabatabai, 2010. "What the Stock Market Decline Means for the Financial Security and Retirement Choices of the Near-Retirement Population," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(1), pages 161-182, Winter.
    8. Eric M. Engen & William G. Gale & Cori E. Uccello, 2005. "Effects Of Stock Market Fluctuations On The Adequacy Of Retirement Wealth Accumulation," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 51(3), pages 397-418, September.
    9. Davies, James B. & Shorrocks, Anthony F., 2000. "The distribution of wealth," Handbook of Income Distribution, in: A.B. Atkinson & F. Bourguignon (ed.), Handbook of Income Distribution, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 605-675, Elsevier.
    10. Picot, Garnett & Larochelle-Cote, Sebastien & Myles, John, 2008. "Income Security and Stability During Retirement in Canada," Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series 2008306e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch.
    11. Sébastien LaRochelle-Côté & John Myles & Garnett Picot, 2008. "Income Security and Stability During Retirement in Canada," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 236, McMaster University.
    12. John Karl Scholz & Ananth Seshadri & Surachai Khitatrakun, 2006. "Are Americans Saving "Optimally" for Retirement?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(4), pages 607-643, August.
    13. Barry Bosworth & Rosanna Smart, 2009. "The Wealth of Older Americans and the Sub-Prime Debacle The Wealth of Older Americans and the Sub-Prime Debacle," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2009-21, Center for Retirement Research, revised Nov 2009.
    14. Dean Baker & David Rosnick, 2008. "The Impact of the Housing Crash on Family Wealth," CEPR Reports and Issue Briefs 2008-20, Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR).
    15. James Poterba & Steven Venti & David Wise, 2011. "The Composition and Drawdown of Wealth in Retirement," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 25(4), pages 95-118, Fall.
    16. Sule Alan, 2006. "Precautionary wealth accumulation: evidence from Canadian microdata," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(4), pages 1105-1124, November.
    17. Coile Courtney C & Levine Phillip B, 2011. "The Market Crash and Mass Layoffs: How the Current Economic Crisis May Affect Retirement," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-42, April.
    18. James Poterba & Steven Venti & David Wise, 2013. "Correction: The Composition and Drawdown of Wealth in Retirement," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 27(4), pages 219-222, Fall.
    19. Jeffrey Thompson & Timothy M. Smeeding, 2010. "Recent Trends in the Distribution of Income: Labor, Wealth and More Complete Measures of Well Being," Working Papers wp225, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    20. William B.P. Robson, 2011. "Don’t Double Down on the CPP: Expansion Advocates Understate the Plan’s Risks," C.D. Howe Institute Backgrounder, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 137, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gopi Shah Goda & John B. Shoven & Sita Nataraj Slavov, 2012. "Does Stock Market Performance Influence Retirement Intentions?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 47(4), pages 1055-1081.
    2. David Love & Lucie Schmidt, 2015. "Comprehensive Wealth of Immigrants and Natives," Working Papers wp328, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    3. Teresa Ghilarducci & Michael Papadopoulos & Anthony Webb, 2020. "The Illusory Benefits of Working Longer on Financial Preparedness for Retirement," SCEPA working paper series. 2020-02, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    4. Mariacristina De Nardi & Eric French & John Bailey Jones & Rory McGee, 2021. "Why Do Couples and Singles Save During Retirement?," Richmond Fed Economic Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 21(09), pages 1-65, May.
    5. Mariacristina De Nardi & Eric French & John Bailey Jones, 2016. "Savings After Retirement: A Survey," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 177-204, October.
    6. Francisco Gomes & Michael Haliassos & Tarun Ramadorai, 2021. "Household Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(3), pages 919-1000, September.
    7. Hannah Zillessen, 2022. "Uncertainty, Citizenship & Migrant Saving Choices," Economics Series Working Papers 1008, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    8. Alexandra Spicer & Olena Stavrunova & Susan Thorp, 2016. "How Portfolios Evolve after Retirement: Evidence from Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 92(297), pages 241-267, June.
    9. Cagetti, Marco & De Nardi, Mariacristina, 2008. "Wealth Inequality: Data And Models," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(S2), pages 285-313, September.
    10. Whelan, Stephen & Atalay, Kadir & Hayward, Richard Donald, 2018. "Asset portfolio retirement decisions: the role of the tax and transfer system," SocArXiv akj8w, Center for Open Science.
    11. John Laitner & Dan Silverman & Dmitriy Stolyarov, 2018. "The Role of Annuitized Wealth in Post-retirement Behavior," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 71-117, July.
    12. Rory McGee & Eric French & John Bailey Jones, 2022. "Saving After Retirement," University of Western Ontario, Departmental Research Report Series 202213, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
    13. Mariacristina De Nardi & Eric French & John Bailey Jones & Rory McGee, 2025. "Why Do Couples and Singles Save during Retirement? Household Heterogeneity and Its Aggregate Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 133(3), pages 750-792.
    14. Fang, H., 2016. "Insurance Markets for the Elderly," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 237-309, Elsevier.
    15. Keane, M.P. & Thorp, S., 2016. "Complex Decision Making," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 661-709, Elsevier.
    16. Michael P. Keane & Susan Thorp, 2016. "Complex Decision Making: The Roles of Cognitive Limitations, Cognitive Decline and Ageing," Economics Papers 2016-W10, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    17. Giuseppe Grande & Ignazio Visco, 2010. "A public guarantee of a minimum return to defined contribution pension scheme members," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 762, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    18. Congressional Budget Office, 2017. "Measuring the Adequacy of Retirement Income: A Primer," Reports 53191, Congressional Budget Office.
    19. James B. Davies, 2009. "The Effects of Asset Price Changes on Economic Security in Canada, 2005-09," University of Western Ontario, Economic Policy Research Institute Working Papers 20092, University of Western Ontario, Economic Policy Research Institute.
    20. repec:osf:socarx:akj8w_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. James Banks & Rowena Crawford & Thomas Crossley & Carl Emmerson, 2012. "The effect of the financial crisis on older households in England," IFS Working Papers W12/09, Institute for Fiscal Studies.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ubc:clssrn:clsrn_admin-2013-20. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Vivian Tran The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Vivian Tran to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.clsrn.econ.ubc.ca/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.