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The Dual Political Legislation Cycle in France

  • Fabio Padovano

    (CREM CNRS UMR6211 and Condorcet Center, University of Rennes 1, France - DIPES, University Roma Tre, Italy)

  • Nicolas Gavoille

    (CREM CNRS UMR6211 and Condorcet Center, University of Rennes 1, France)

This paper tests the Political Legislation Cycle theory on French data. The theory predicts a peak of legislative production in the pre-electoral period, when the legislator increases voters’ utility in order to be reelected. France is unique in that two elections set up the pace of political life: the presidential and the legislative elections which potentially generate a dual legislation cycle. A hierarchical Poisson model is implemented on a sample containing the monthly legislative production from January 1959 to March 2012. We found that 1) a dual cycle of the production of laws emerges, following both the presidential and the legislative elections, 2) since the constitutional reform of 2000, which synchronized the two elections, the magnitude of the cycle increased, and 3) the President of the Republic does not have an impact on the legislative production, but relies on the government.

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Paper provided by Condorcet Center for political Economy in its series Economics Working Paper from Condorcet Center for political Economy at CREM-CNRS with number 2013-02-ccr.

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Date of creation: Jan 2013
Date of revision: Jun 2014
Handle: RePEc:tut:cccrwp:2013-02-ccr
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  1. Marco Alfò & Giovanni Trovato, 2004. "Semiparametric mixture models for multivariate count data, with application," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 426-454, December.
  2. Aidt, T.S. & Veiga, F.J. & Veiga, L.G., 2009. "Election Results and Opportunistic Policies: A New Test of the Rational Political Business Cycle Model," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0934, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  3. Josef Brechler & Adam Gersl, 2011. "Political Legislation Cycle in the Czech Republic," Working Papers IES 2011/21, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jul 2011.
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