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Discrete and smooth scalar-on-density compositional regression for assessing the impact of climate change on rice yield in Vietnam

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  • Thomas-Agnan, Christine
  • Simioni, Michel
  • Trinh, Thi-Huong

Abstract

In econometrics, the impact of climate change on agricultural yield has often been modeled using linear functional regression, where crop yield, a scalar response, is regressed on the temperature distribution over a given time period, treated as an ordinary functional parameter, along with other covariates. We explore alternative models that respect the distributional nature of the temperature distribution parameter. Replacing functional observations with the corresponding distributional ones is appropriate for phenomena that are insensitive to the temporal order of events.Since classical addition and scalar multiplication are unsuitable for density functions, alternative operations and spaces are required. Moreover, compositional data analysis suggests that such covariates should undergo appropriate log-ratio transformations before inclusion in the model. We compare a discrete approach, where temperature histograms are treated as compositional vectors, with a smooth scalar-on-density regression using a Bayes space representation of temperature densities. We evaluate the strengths of each method in modeling rice yield in Vietnam, using data on daily temperature extremes.Additionally, we propose modeling climate change scenarios with perturbations of the initial density along a change direction curve informed by IPCC scenarios. The resulting rice yield impact is then quantified using a simple inner product between the density covariate parameter and the change direction curve. Our results indicate that while both approaches yield coherent findings, the smooth model outperforms the discrete one with an enhanced ability to accurately gauge the phenomenon's scale.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas-Agnan, Christine & Simioni, Michel & Trinh, Thi-Huong, 2023. "Discrete and smooth scalar-on-density compositional regression for assessing the impact of climate change on rice yield in Vietnam," TSE Working Papers 23-1410, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Jun 2025.
  • Handle: RePEc:tse:wpaper:127847
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jitka Machalová & Renáta Talská & Karel Hron & Aleš Gába, 2021. "Compositional splines for representation of density functions," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 1031-1064, June.
    2. Colin Carter & Xiaomeng Cui & Dalia Ghanem & Pierre Mérel, 2018. "Identifying the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 361-380, October.
    3. K. Hron & P. Filzmoser & K. Thompson, 2012. "Linear regression with compositional explanatory variables," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(5), pages 1115-1128, November.
    4. Joanna Morais & Christine Thomas-Agnan & Michel Simioni, 2017. "Interpretation of explanatory variables impacts in compositional regression models," Working Papers hal-01563362, HAL.
    5. Fernando M. Aragón & Francisco Oteiza & Juan Pablo Rud, 2021. "Climate Change and Agriculture: Subsistence Farmers' Response to Extreme Heat," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 1-35, February.
    6. J. Machalová & K. Hron & G.S. Monti, 2016. "Preprocessing of centred logratio transformed density functions using smoothing splines," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(8), pages 1419-1435, June.
    7. Tatyana Deryugina & Solomon Hsiang, 2017. "The Marginal Product of Climate," NBER Working Papers 24072, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Petersen, Alexander & Zhang, Chao & Kokoszka, Piotr, 2022. "Modeling Probability Density Functions as Data Objects," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 159-178.
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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas-Agnan, Christine & Mondon, Camille & Trinh, Thi-Huong & Ruiz-Gazen, Anne, 2024. "ICS for complex data with application to outlier detection for density data," TSE Working Papers 24-1585, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised May 2025.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Compositional scalar-on-density regression; scalar-on-composition regression; Bayes space; compositional splines; functional regression; climate change; rice yield; Vietnam.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C16 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Econometric and Statistical Methods; Specific Distributions
    • C39 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Other
    • Q19 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Other
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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