Expectations Structure in Asset Pricing Experiments
Notwithstanding the recognized importance of traders' expectations in characterizing the observed market dynamics, for instance the formation of speculative bubbles and crashes on financial markets, little attention has been devoted so far by economists to a rigorous study of expectation formation in the laboratory. In this work we describe a laboratory experiment on the emergence and coordination of expectations in a pure exchange framework. We largely base our study on previous experiments on expectation formation in a controlled laboratory environment by Cars Hommes, Joep Sonnemans, Ian Tuinstra and Henk van de Velden (2002a). We consider a simple two asset economy with a riskless bond and a risky stock. Each market is composed of six experimental subjects who act as financial advisors of myopic risk-averse utility maximizing investors and are rewarded according to how well their forecasts perform in the market. The participants are asked to predict not only the price of the risky asset at time t+1, as in Hommes et al. (2002a), but also the confidence interval of their prediction, knowing the past realizations of the price until time t-1. The realized asset price is derived from a Walrasian market equilibrium equation, unknown to the subjects, with feedback from individual forecasts. Subjects' earnings are proportional to the increase in their wealth level. With respect to previous experiments that did not include an explicit evaluation of risk by participants, we observe a higher price volatility, a decreased likelihood of bubble dynamics and, in general, a higher heterogeneity of predictions.
|Date of creation:||Jan 2003|
|Date of revision:||12 Jun 2008|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: via Inama, 5 -- I-38100 Trento TN|
Web page: http://www.unitn.it/disa
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Postal: DISA Università degli Studi di Trento via Inama, 5 I-38122 Trento TN Italy|
Web: http://www.unitn.it/disa Email:
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Charles Noussair & Stephane Robin & Bernard Ruffieux, 2001. "Price Bubbles in Laboratory Asset Markets with Constant Fundamental Values," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 4(1), pages 87-105, June.
- Hommes, Cars & Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan & van de Velden, Henk, 2008.
"Expectations and bubbles in asset pricing experiments,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization,
Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 116-133, July.
- Hommes, C.H. & Sonnemans, J. & Tuinstra, J. & Velden, H. van de, 2002. "Expectations and Bubbles in Asset Pricing Experiments," CeNDEF Working Papers 02-05, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Cars Hommes & Joep Sonnemans & Jan Tuinstra & Henk van de Velden, 2004.
"Coordination of Expectations in Asset Pricing Experiments,"
DNB Staff Reports (discontinued)
119, Netherlands Central Bank.
- Cars Hommes & Joep Sonnemans & Jan Tuinstra & Henk van de Velden, 2005. "Coordination of Expectations in Asset Pricing Experiments," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(3), pages 955-980.
- Cars Hommes & Joep Sonnemans & Jan Tuinstra & Henk van de Velden, 2003. "Coordination of Expectations in Asset Pricing Experiments," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-010/1, Tinbergen Institute.
- Giulio Bottazzi & Giovanna Devetag, 2003.
"Expectations Structure in Asset Pricing Experiments,"
ROCK Working Papers
022, Department of Computer and Management Sciences, University of Trento, Italy, revised 12 Jun 2008.
- Giulio Bottazzi & Maria Giovanna Devetag, 2003. "Expectations Structure in Asset Pricing Experiments," LEM Papers Series 2003/19, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
- Giulio Bottazzi & Giovanna Devetag, 2005. "Expectations structure in asset pricing experiments," CEEL Working Papers 0503, Cognitive and Experimental Economics Laboratory, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
- Sunder, S., 1992. "Experimental Asset Markets: A Survey," GSIA Working Papers 1992-19, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
- Smith, Vernon L & Suchanek, Gerry L & Williams, Arlington W, 1988. "Bubbles, Crashes, and Endogenous Expectations in Experimental Spot Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1119-1151, September.
- Porter, David P & Smith, Vernon L, 1995. "Futures Contracting and Dividend Uncertainty in Experimental Asset Markets," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(4), pages 509-541, October.
- Noussair, C. & Robin, S. & Ruffieux, B., 1998. "Bubbles and Anti-Crashes in Laboratory Asset Markets with Constant Fundamental Values," Purdue University Economics Working Papers 1119, Purdue University, Department of Economics.
- Mark van Boening & Vernon L. Smith & Charissa P. Wellford, 2000. "Dividend timing and behavior in laboratory asset markets," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 16(3), pages 567-583.
- Giulio Bottazzi, 2002. "A Simple Micro-Model of Market Dynamics Part I: The "Homogenous Agents" Deterministic Limit," LEM Papers Series 2002/10, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:trt:rockwp:022. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Loris Gaio)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.