Expectations structure in asset pricing experiments
Notwithstanding the recognized importance of tradersï¿½ expectations in characterizing the observed market dynamics, for instance the formation of speculative bubbles and crashes on financial markets, little attention has been devoted so far by economists to a rigorous study of expectation formation in the laboratory. In this work we describe a laboratory experiment on the emergence and coordination of expectations in a pure exchange framework. We largely base our study on previous experiments on expectation formation in a controlled laboratory environment by Cars Hommes, Joep Sonnemans, Ian Tuinstra and Henk van de Velden (2002a). We consider a simple two asset economy with a riskless bond and a risky stock. Each market is composed of six experimental subjects who act as financial advisors of myopic risk-averse utility maximizing investors and are rewarded according to how well their forecasts perform in the market. The participants are asked to predict not only the price of the risky asset at time t+1, as in Hommes et al. (2002a), but also the confidence interval of their prediction, knowing the past realizations of the price until time t ï¿½ 1. The realized asset price is derived from a Walrasian market equilibrium equation, unknown to the subjects, with feedback from individual forecasts. Subjectsï¿½ earnings are proportional to the increase in their wealth level. With respect to previous experiments that did not include an explicit evaluation of risk by participants, we observe a higher price volatility, a decreased likelihood of bubble dynamics and, in general, a higher heterogeneity of predictions.
|Date of creation:||2005|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Via Inama 5, 38100 Trento|
Web page: http://www-ceel.economia.unitn.it
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Noussair, C. & Robin, S. & Ruffieux, B., 1998. "Bubbles and Anti-Crashes in Laboratory Asset Markets with Constant Fundamental Values," Purdue University Economics Working Papers 1119, Purdue University, Department of Economics.
- Mark van Boening & Vernon L. Smith & Charissa P. Wellford, 2000. "Dividend timing and behavior in laboratory asset markets," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 16(3), pages 567-583.
- Giulio Bottazzi, 2002. "A Simple Micro-Model of Market Dynamics Part I: The "Homogenous Agents" Deterministic Limit," LEM Papers Series 2002/10, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
- Cars Hommes & Joep Sonnemans & Jan Tuinstra & Henk van de Velden, 2005.
"Coordination of Expectations in Asset Pricing Experiments,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(3), pages 955-980.
- Cars Hommes & Joep Sonnemans & Jan Tuinstra & Henk van de Velden, 2003. "Coordination of Expectations in Asset Pricing Experiments," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-010/1, Tinbergen Institute.
- Cars Hommes & Joep Sonnemans & Jan Tuinstra & Henk van de Velden, 2004. "Coordination of Expectations in Asset Pricing Experiments," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 119, Netherlands Central Bank.
- Giulio Bottazzi & Giovanna Devetag, 2003. "Expectations Structure in Asset Pricing Experiments," ROCK Working Papers 022, Department of Computer and Management Sciences, University of Trento, Italy, revised 12 Jun 2008.
- Giulio Bottazzi & Giovanna Devetag, 2005. "Expectations structure in asset pricing experiments," CEEL Working Papers 0503, Cognitive and Experimental Economics Laboratory, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
- Giulio Bottazzi & Maria Giovanna Devetag, 2003. "Expectations Structure in Asset Pricing Experiments," LEM Papers Series 2003/19, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
- Smith, Vernon L & Suchanek, Gerry L & Williams, Arlington W, 1988. "Bubbles, Crashes, and Endogenous Expectations in Experimental Spot Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1119-1151, September.
- Sunder, S., 1992. "Experimental Asset Markets: A Survey," GSIA Working Papers 1992-19, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
- Hommes, Cars & Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan & van de Velden, Henk, 2008. "Expectations and bubbles in asset pricing experiments," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 116-133, July.
- Hommes, C.H. & Sonnemans, J. & Tuinstra, J. & Velden, H. van de, 2002. "Expectations and Bubbles in Asset Pricing Experiments," CeNDEF Working Papers 02-05, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Charles Noussair & Stephane Robin & Bernard Ruffieux, 2001. "Price Bubbles in Laboratory Asset Markets with Constant Fundamental Values," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 4(1), pages 87-105, June.
- Porter, David P & Smith, Vernon L, 1995. "Futures Contracting and Dividend Uncertainty in Experimental Asset Markets," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(4), pages 509-541, October. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)