IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ams/ndfwpp/04-15.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Forming price expectations in positive and negative feedback systems

Author

Listed:
  • Heemeijer, P.

    () (Universiteit van Amsterdam)

  • Hommes, C.H.

    (Universiteit van Amsterdam)

  • Sonnemans, J.

    (Universiteit van Amsterdam)

  • Tuinstra, J.

    () (Universiteit van Amsterdam)

Abstract

We analyse the results of an experiment on expectation formation carried out last year (i.e., 2003) in the CREED laboratory in Amsterdam. The experiment involved 78 participants, who were asked to predict prices in artificial single-good economies, and were paid according to their accuracy in doing so. Thirteen markets, with six subjects each, were created, in two different treatments. The first treatment concerns a Cobweb-like commodity market with supply-driven expectations feedback. The second treatment concerns a speculative asset market with demanddriven expectations feedback. In the first treatment price fluctuations are relatively stable, quickly converging to the Rational Expectations fundamental value. In the second treatment prices do not converge quickly, but tend to display a slow oscillation around the fundamental price. An important factor in generating these differences is shown to be the strong coordination of price predictions among participants. This suggests a large degree of homogeneity in the expectation rules applied by the participants, which was confirmed by explicitly fitting the individual predictions to a linear adaptive autoregressive specification.

Suggested Citation

  • Heemeijer, P. & Hommes, C.H. & Sonnemans, J. & Tuinstra, J., 2004. "Forming price expectations in positive and negative feedback systems," CeNDEF Working Papers 04-15, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  • Handle: RePEc:ams:ndfwpp:04-15
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://cendef.uva.nl/binaries/content/assets/subsites/amsterdam-school-of-economics/amsterdam-school-of-economics-research-institute/cendef/working-papers-2004/heemhstfeedbmei04.pdf?1417180950190
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Giulio Bottazzi & Giovanna Devetag, 2003. "Expectations Structure in Asset Pricing Experiments," ROCK Working Papers 022, Department of Computer and Management Sciences, University of Trento, Italy, revised 12 Jun 2008.
    2. Lei, Vivian & Noussair, Charles N & Plott, Charles R, 2001. "Nonspeculative Bubbles in Experimental Asset Markets: Lack of Common Knowledge of Rationality vs. Actual Irrationality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(4), pages 831-859, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Johannes Leitner & Robert Schmidt, 2007. "Expectation formation in an experimental foreign exchange market," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 15(2), pages 167-184, June.
    2. Branch, William A., 2007. "Sticky information and model uncertainty in survey data on inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 245-276, January.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ams:ndfwpp:04-15. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Cees C.G. Diks). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/cnuvanl.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.