IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tky/fseres/2015cf959.html

Deflation/Inflation Dynamics: Analysis based on Micro Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Hiroshi Yoshikawa

    (Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo)

  • Hideaki Aoyama

    (Graduate School of Science, Kyoto University and Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI))

  • Yoshi Fujiwara

    (Graduate School of Simulation Studies, The University of Hyogo,)

  • Hiroshi Iyetomi

    (Department of Mathematics, Niigata University,)

Abstract

Micro price data shows that individual price settings are not time-invariant as presumed in the existing literature. Furthermore, the analysis of autocorrelations shows that interactions of micro prices with leads and lags ignored in the literature play a very important role in explaining the behavior of aggregate price index. The price index such as CPI contains \noises" for the purpose of macroeconomics and monetary policy. The "core" CPI used by central banks is, however, defined merely on common sense and casual observation. We present a new method of extracting information on the systemic changes of the aggregate price based on micro price data. The "true core price index" so defined is correlated with over-time hours worked, the unemployment rate, and the exchange rate. It is not significantly correlated with money supply. Our analysis also shows that inertia arising from interactions of micro prices more plausibly explains the behavior of aggregate price than expectations. --

Suggested Citation

  • Hiroshi Yoshikawa & Hideaki Aoyama & Yoshi Fujiwara & Hiroshi Iyetomi, 2015. "Deflation/Inflation Dynamics: Analysis based on Micro Prices ," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-959, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    • Handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:2015cf959
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cirje.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/research/dp/2015/2015cf959.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. N. Gregory Mankiw, 1985. "Small Menu Costs and Large Business Cycles: A Macroeconomic Model of Monopoly," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 100(2), pages 529-538.
    2. Gita Gopinath & Oleg Itskhoki & Roberto Rigobon, 2010. "Currency Choice and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 304-336, March.
    3. Sophocles Mavroeidis & Mikkel Plagborg-M?ller & James H. Stock, 2014. "Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(1), pages 124-188, March.
    4. John Horn, 1965. "A rationale and test for the number of factors in factor analysis," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 30(2), pages 179-185, June.
    5. Mikhail Golosov & Robert E. Lucas Jr., 2007. "Menu Costs and Phillips Curves," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(2), pages 171-199.
    6. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2013. "Price Rigidity: Microeconomic Evidence and Macroeconomic Implications," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 133-163, May.
    7. Godley, Wynne A H & Nordhaus, William D, 1972. "Pricing in the Trade Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 82(327), pages 853-882, September.
    8. R. L. Hall & C. J. Hitch, 1939. "Price Theory And Business Behaviour," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 0(1), pages 12-45.
    9. Carvalho Carlos, 2006. "Heterogeneity in Price Stickiness and the Real Effects of Monetary Shocks," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-58, December.
    10. Tobin, James, 1972. "Inflation and Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 1-18, March.
    11. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    12. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow, 2004. "Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(5), pages 947-985, October.
    13. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow & Oleksiy Kryvtsov, 2003. "Sticky prices and monetary policy shocks," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 27(Win), pages 2-9.
    14. Virgiliu Midrigan, 2011. "Menu Costs, Multiproduct Firms, and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(4), pages 1139-1180, July.
    15. Iyetomi, Hiroshi & Nakayama, Yasuhiro & Yoshikawa, Hiroshi & Aoyama, Hideaki & Fujiwara, Yoshi & Ikeda, Yuichi & Souma, Wataru, 2011. "What causes business cycles? Analysis of the Japanese industrial production data," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 246-272, September.
    16. Robert J. Gordon, 2011. "The History of the Phillips Curve: Consensus and Bifurcation," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(309), pages 10-50, January.
    17. Martin Eichenbaum & Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2011. "Reference Prices, Costs, and Nominal Rigidities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 234-262, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yuichi IKEDA & Hideaki AOYAMA & Hiroshi IYETOMI & Takayuki MIZUNO & Takaaki OHNISHI & Yohei SAKAMOTO & Tsutomu WATANABE, 2016. "Econophysics Point of View of Trade Liberalization: Community dynamics, synchronization, and controllability as example of collective motions," Discussion papers 16026, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    2. Eamon Duede & Victor Zhorin, 2016. "Convergence of Economic Growth and the Great Recession as Seen From a Celestial Observatory," Papers 1604.04312, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2016.
    3. Shigeaki Ogibayashi & Kosei Takashima, 2017. "Influence of Inefficiency in Government Expenditure on the Multiplier of Public Investment," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 50(4), pages 549-577, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hiroshi YOSHIKAWA & Hideaki AOYAMA & Hiroshi IYETOMI & Yoshi FUJIWARA, 2015. "Deflation/Inflation Dynamics: Analysis based on micro prices," Discussion papers 15026, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    2. Yuichi KICHIKAWA & Hideaki AOYAMA & Yoshi FUJIWARA & Hiroshi IYETOMI & Hiroshi YOSHIKAWA, 2018. "Analysis of Inflation/Deflation: Clusters of micro prices matter!," Discussion papers 18055, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    3. Yuichi Kichikawa & Hiroshi Iyetomi & Hideaki Aoyama & Yoshi Fujiwara & Hiroshi Yoshikawa, 2020. "Interindustry linkages of prices—Analysis of Japan’s deflation," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(2), pages 1-26, February.
    4. Peter J. Klenow & Jonathan L. Willis, 2016. "Real Rigidities and Nominal Price Changes," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 83(331), pages 443-472, July.
    5. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2010. "Monetary Non-neutrality in a Multisector Menu Cost Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(3), pages 961-1013.
    6. Michael Weber, 2014. "Nominal Rigidities and Asset Pricing," 2014 Meeting Papers 53, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Emmanuel Dhyne & Jerzy Konieczny & Fabio Rumler & Patrick Sevestre, 2009. "Price rigidity in the euro area - An assessment," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 380, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    8. Ray, Sourav & Snir, Avichai & Levy, Daniel, 2023. "Retail Pricing Format and Rigidity of Regular Prices," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 1-1.
    9. Stéphane Dupraz, 2024. "A Kinked‐Demand Theory of Price Rigidity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(2-3), pages 325-363, March.
    10. Hahn, Volker & Marenčák, Michal, 2020. "Price points and price dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 127-144.
    11. Carvalho, Carlos & Kryvtsov, Oleksiy, 2021. "Price selection," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 56-75.
    12. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2013. "Price Rigidity: Microeconomic Evidence and Macroeconomic Implications," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 133-163, May.
    13. Klenow, Peter J. & Malin, Benjamin A., 2010. "Microeconomic Evidence on Price-Setting," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 6, pages 231-284, Elsevier.
    14. Borraz, Fernando & Livan, Giacomo & Rodríguez-Martínez, Anahí & Picardo, Pablo, 2022. "Price, sales, and the business cycle: Microeconomic evidence," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 3(1).
    15. Hellwig, Christian & Venkateswaran, Venky, 2025. "Dispersed information, nominal rigidities and monetary business cycles: A Hayekian perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(S).
    16. Jae Won Lee & Seunghyeon Lee, 2025. "Monetary Non-Neutrality in a Multisector Economy: The Role of Risk-Sharing," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 55, January.
    17. Nicoletta Berardi & Erwan Gautier & Hervé Le Bihan, 2015. "More Facts about Prices: France Before and During the Great Recession," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(8), pages 1465-1502, December.
    18. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Engel, Eduardo M.R.A., 2007. "Price stickiness in Ss models: New interpretations of old results," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(Supplemen), pages 100-121, September.
    19. Ahrens, Steffen & Pirschel, Inske & Snower, Dennis J., 2017. "A theory of price adjustment under loss aversion," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 78-95.
    20. Karadi, Peter & Amann, Juergen & Bachiller, Javier Sánchez & Seiler, Pascal & Wursten, Jesse, 2023. "Price setting on the two sides of the Atlantic - Evidence from supermarket scanner data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(S), pages 1-17.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:2015cf959. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CIRJE administrative office (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ritokjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.