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Fast Efficient Importance Sampling by State Space Methods

Author

Listed:
  • Siem Jan Koopman

    (VU University Amsterdam, the Netherlands)

  • Rutger Lit

    (VU University Amsterdam, the Netherlands)

  • Thuy Minh Nguyen

    (Deutsche Bank, London, United Kingdom)

Abstract

This version has replaced the version of January 30, 2012. A successful construction of an importance density for nonlinear non-Gaussian state space models is crucial when Monte Carlo simulation methods are used for likelihood evaluation, signal extraction of dynamic latent factors and forecasting. The method of efficient importance sampling is successful in this respect but we show that it can be implemented more conveniently using standard Kalman filter and smoothing methods. We further obtain computational gains by simulating directly from the signal equation rather than simulating from the usually higher dimensional state equation. Our results provide some new insights but they primarily lead to a more simple and fast method for efficient importance sampling. In a simulation study we provide some evidence of the computational gains. Our new methods are illustrated for a stochastic volatility model with a Student's t distribution.

Suggested Citation

  • Siem Jan Koopman & Rutger Lit & Thuy Minh Nguyen, 2012. "Fast Efficient Importance Sampling by State Space Methods," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-008/4, Tinbergen Institute, revised 16 Oct 2014.
  • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20120008
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    File URL: https://papers.tinbergen.nl/12008.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jung, Robert C. & Liesenfeld, Roman & Richard, Jean-François, 2011. "Dynamic Factor Models for Multivariate Count Data: An Application to Stock-Market Trading Activity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(1), pages 73-85.
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    3. Robert C. Jung & Roman Liesenfeld & Jean-François Richard, 2011. "Dynamic Factor Models for Multivariate Count Data: An Application to Stock-Market Trading Activity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 73-85, January.
    4. J. Durbin & S. J. Koopman, 2000. "Time series analysis of non‐Gaussian observations based on state space models from both classical and Bayesian perspectives," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 62(1), pages 3-56.
    5. Liesenfeld, Roman & Richard, Jean-Francois, 2003. "Univariate and multivariate stochastic volatility models: estimation and diagnostics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 505-531, September.
    6. Durham, Garland B & Gallant, A Ronald, 2002. "Numerical Techniques for Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Continuous-Time Diffusion Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 297-316, July.
    7. Siem Jan Koopman & Marcel Scharth, 2012. "The Analysis of Stochastic Volatility in the Presence of Daily Realized Measures," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 76-115, December.
    8. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2012. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199641178.
    9. Kloek, Tuen & van Dijk, Herman K, 1978. "Bayesian Estimates of Equation System Parameters: An Application of Integration by Monte Carlo," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 1-19, January.
    10. Durham, Garland B & Gallant, A Ronald, 2002. "Numerical Techniques for Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Continuous-Time Diffusion Processes: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 335-338, July.
    11. Borus Jungbacker & Siem Jan Koopman, 2007. "Monte Carlo Estimation for Nonlinear Non-Gaussian State Space Models," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 94(4), pages 827-839.
    12. Jean-Francois Richard, 2007. "Efficient High-Dimensional Importance Sampling," Working Paper 321, Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh, revised Jan 2007.
    13. J. Durbin, 2002. "A simple and efficient simulation smoother for state space time series analysis," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 89(3), pages 603-616, August.
    14. Danielsson, J & Richard, J-F, 1993. "Accelerated Gaussian Importance Sampler with Application to Dynamic Latent Variable Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages 153-173, Suppl. De.
    15. Siem Jan Koopman & André Lucas & Marcel Scharth, 2015. "Numerically Accelerated Importance Sampling for Nonlinear Non-Gaussian State-Space Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 114-127, January.
    16. Richard, Jean-Francois & Zhang, Wei, 2007. "Efficient high-dimensional importance sampling," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 1385-1411, December.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Kalman filter; Monte Carlo maximum likelihood; Simulation smoothing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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